FA Cup First Round Betting: League Two special!

FA Cup / Ian Lamont / 06 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

Ian Lamont, odds maestro of League Two, looks at the choice fixtures for the division's sides in the FA Cup this weekend.

League Two has been tricky enough to fathom this season and now we throw that bizarre creature the FA Cup into the mix to confuse us further.

It that isn't bad enough, some idiots scheduled rounds of the Setanta Shield (Conference League Cup) and the Johnstone's Paint Trophy into the midweek before these first round ties.
Those league cup sponsors won't thank them. Why would teams prioritise those competitions with the FA Cup looming, when there is £20,000 at stake for winning this weekend, a bumper gate in prospect and, for some, the biggest match of their lives?

Predictions involving League Two sides have given me such a headache - to go with the brewing cold - that my main plays of the week will be Team Bath at [2.25] to beat Forest Green, Grays at [9.0] with one bookie to win at Carlisle (or at least lay United at [1.4]) and BGB Midlands side Bury Town at a whopping [7.0] to win at Blue Square North Alfreton Town, who are an instant lay at [1.5]. It's just a shame those ties are not in my remit to discuss further.

Backing Bury Town certainly seems a lot more fun than, for example, trying to rely on in-and-out-of-form Bury at [2.25] to beat Gillingham [3.25], who snatched a rare away win at Macclesfield last weekend. If you must have a bet in this match, take the under 2.5 goals market.

For me this weekend, the way to play any number of tricky short-priced League Two teams is to lay them, thereby covering the draw which also earns the minnows their slice of glory.

Lay Lincoln, for example, away at Kettering Town, whose manager Mark Cooper has FA Cup history with Tamworth. He knows how to set a side out to battle, as proven by the Poppies' march to the top of the Blue Square Premier. The Imps are one of League Two's form sides, making them just ripe for a giant-killing at [2.35].

Morecambe, at [2.0], are another lay at home to Grimsby. The Shrimps could be short of up to nine men in their squad - after the daftness of playing a game in another cup (at Tranmere) during the week. The FA Cup will come as a relief to Grimsby boss Mike Newell, still without his first win at the club - and how often does it provide solace for struggling sides?

Talking of strugglers, Sutton United haven't really got their Ryman Premier League season going yet, such has been their success in cup games, in the FA Cup and Trophy. Gander Green Lane should send a shudder down the memory cortex of any league player who knows his FA Cup history. It is just a few months short of 20 years since the U's shock win over Coventry City in the third round - the last time a non-league side beat a top flight team.
Notts County will be fearful of the experience and should be layed at [1.7]. The best they have done on their trips south in the league this season is a draw.

Luton Town are vulnerable at home and to me are no sureties at odds on [1.66] to see off Altrincham. The visitors might have had a few injuries going into last weekend's Blue Square Premier game, but you can bet there will be few come this Saturday.
Altrincham striker Colin Little, whose goal average is one in two, turned down League clubs to stay with Graham Heathcoat's men. Apart from the odd pre-FA Cup match glitch, Altrincham at [5.5] are on a great run of form and could take a tight game in an under 2.5 goals contest. Certainly their hosts are to be layed.

Given the perverse nature of the Cup, League Two strugglers Chester are the one clear back of the week at a sizeable [4.5]. Ryan Lowe, with an inspired show against Brentford 10 days ago, would appear to have that edginess needed when you face Millwall, who are simply flying too high for their own good in League One.

If Kevin Ellison, alongside Lowe, can have a similarly good game, and Mokiza add his French dressing in midfield, the Lions could be in for a torrid afternoon at the Deva, where City demonstrated their abilities to shock with that win over the Bees.

Recommendations:

Lay Notts County at [1.7]
Lay Lincoln at [2.35]
Lay Morecambe at [2.0]
Back Chester at [4.5]