FA Cup Final Betting: Chelsea v Everton

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 29 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

Barcelona may have won trophies playing beautiful football, but don't expect tomorrow's FA Cup winners to do it in quite the same style says "Mystical" Mike Norman. Best Bet: Back Under 1.5 Goals at 3.0...

If you thought Barcelona v Man Utd was a poor game the other night, then I wouldn't get too excited about Chelsea v Everton being a glorious spectacle either.

In fact, if you're not an in-running player (and I hope there are plenty of you out there) and prefer to place your bets pre-match, then my best advice is to go and paint one of the bedroom walls or something, and as soon as the match kicks-off, take yourself upstairs and watch the paint dry. Hopefully, once you return from the bedroom, excitement at its maximum and all that, your Betfair balance will have improved greatly without having to endure the game itself.

I'm not saying don't have a bet - far from it - I'm just saying don't expect a thriller. The Match Odds market has Chelsea available to back at [1.74], Everton at [6.0], and The Draw at [3.75].

I've tried, but I just can't find any evidence to suggest this game will be an open and entertaining affair. Both Premier League encounters this season finished 0-0, and the last five league encounters between these two sides (when both squads were similar to their cup final ones) have averaged just 0.8 goals per game.

Ok, this is a cup game, not a league game, but when you consider cup finals are usually tense and cagey affairs, with both teams usually putting an initial emphasis on not losing rather than winning, then you can start to understand why I think this game will have few goals in it.

Under 2.5 Goals is certainly the way to play, but at just [1.63] to back it won't get us very rich. Try the Under 1.5 Goals option at [3.0] for 80% of your stake on this market, with the other 20% going on no goals being scored, or to be more precise, 0-0 in the Correct Score market - available to back at an appealing [9.6].

Team news is a bit scarce at the time of writing, but neither team have any major injury worries other than the long term and much publicised ones like Joe Cole, Phil Jagielka, and Mikel Arteta. Therefore we can be quite confident that the likes of Didier Drogba, Tim Cahill, Frank Lampard, Florent Malouda, and Marouane Fellaini will start the game, making the First Goalscorer and To Score (at anytime) markets extremely difficult to call.

Considering how I think the game will go and the recent history between the two sides I don't feel confident enough to put up a selection. For information purposes then, Drogba should be available to back at around the [6.5] mark once the First Goalscorer market matures, with Lampard at [9.0], Cahill and Malouda at [14.0], and Fellaini at [16.0]. In the To Score market, Drogba should be available at [3.0], Lampard at [4.5], Cahill and Malouda at [6.5] and Fellaini at [8.0].

The Chelsea players will obviously want to send their interim manager Guus Hiddink out on a high, but that doesn't mean Everton will be trying any less, and remember, there is seldom any sentiment in football - if any. For that reason, I think The Draw is the most likely outcome after 90 minutes, and at [3.75] to back, I'm happy to move in.

A draw obviously brings into play the Method of Victory market, and my advice here is to have a small interest pre-match on both Chelsea Extra Time ([11.5]) and Everton Extra Time ([18.5]).

Remember, Sky Sports don't have the rights to show the FA Cup Final, so if you're still tuned in at 4:45 and wondering why the game isn't on then I'm afraid you've missed it. Then again, count yourself lucky... I don't think you will have missed much.