FA Cup Betting: Banana skins aplenty for League Two reps

FA Cup / Ian Lamont / 27 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

The FA cup is famous for shock results making its fixtures particularly tricky to bet on. Fortunately for you, our man Ian Lamont reckons he has this weekend's value cornered, as he previews the Round's matches involving clubs from League 2.

Marvellous this ability to lay isn't it? For years going into the bookies was a frustrating affair when you thought "I wouldn't back at that price but I can't make up my mind about which of the other two outcomes will happen". There's no excuse to select "no bet" nowadays. Some fixtures I'd lay the bookies prices all day.

Such opportunities involving League Two sides stretch right across the FA Cup second round weekend, whether they be fun bets or ones to put the serious money on.

Tonight Port Vale fit into the strong lay category, especially if you can get [2.1] or below. This is because Macclesfield have a much better chance than the [3.7] suggests. That's not a sentence I would have thought I would be writing at the start of the season, but there is no doubt Keith Alexander's men have been showing considerable resilience of late. The Silkmen's manager is certainly getting the best out of midfielder Nat Brown, whom he also had at Lincoln. One of that paradoxical breed of players who has been loaned up a division (from Wrexham) Brown has got three goals in the Cheshire club's run of four unbeaten games, kick-started by that first round win at Harlow - a game which had the doomsayers pinpointing as an upset. Port Vale have lost six at home and this week lost striker Luke Rodgers to Yeovil.

Another in the lay category - at [1.9] if you can get it - are Notts County. The Magpies are vulnerable on Sunday at home to Blue Square Premier surprise package Kettering, who will be set out to close down, harry and hustle by Mark Cooper, who has a little history with the FA Cup at Tamworth and who has already masterminded a triumph over Lincoln after a replay. Ian MacParland's injury-hit side scraped past Sutton, who put up a great fight in the last round, until the one occasion that the runner at the back post - Richard Butcher - wasn't picked up.
Jonathon Forte, on loan from Scunthorpe, is a worry if allowed to play but even so he will come up against two towers at the back of the Poppies' team in the form of Guy Branston and Exodus Geohaghan - who, by the way, has one of the longest throws in the game.

County have been none too clever at the back a few times this season, most recently losing 6-1 at Dagenham, which brings me to the fun bets. The Daggers are, as League Two's top scorers, a whopping [8.5] to win at Leicester City. Admittedly the Foxes have the second meanest defence in their division, but I fancy John Still to set out his side to give Leicester a far better game than Stevenage, who were out-classed in round one.
Paul Benson got himself into double figures for the season with three against County and Ben Strevens and Sam Saunders are not far behind. The home price of [1.4] means you can lay the beer money without risking the mortgage, covering the draw, which is a quite possible result.

The other fun bet is strictly for those with Shots-tinted specs like me. Aldershot Town might be without suspended big striker Danny Hylton, but it just gives the likes of Mark Hudson - who has been urged to work harder - a chance to cement a place in the side as the Hampshire club travel not too far to Millwall.

Plenty of the players have had chances at higher levels and will want to prove themselves, as will ex-QPR youth boss Gary Waddock. Having finally conquered their away day blues, I reckon the Shots can snatch a draw at [3.5].

Finally, it seems strange to be thinking about backing odds-on in the FA Cup, especially on a team away from home. But I don't think there can be any resisting a wager on Wycombe, even at [1.7]. Matt Harrold has continued to make a name for himself - and maintain his starting berth - after a stunning televised hat-trick in the last round. Couple that with Wycombe's superb defensive record and being unbeaten on the road, Eastwood Town will find them too tough a cookie to crack. Boss Peter Taylor just won't let the shock happen.

Recommendations:

Lay Port Vale at 2.1
Lay Notts County at 1.9
Lay Leicester at 1.4
Millwall/Aldershot to draw at [3.8]
Back Wycombe at 1.7