FA Cup Betting: Why Boro can't win

FA Cup / Frank Gregan / 05 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

Frank Gregan isn't expecting any shocks in the FA Cup, either this weekend or in the semi-finals. However, Everton v Middlesborough is a tie full of intrigue as Gareth Southgate's men balance the prospect of cup glory with the threat of relegation. Best Bet: Back Everton to beat Middlesborough at [1.75].

There is every chance that the semi-final line up for this year's FA Cup will be as predictable as the reverse forecast in the boat race. The only slight surprise is that the Merseyside team won't be from the red side of Stanley Park with Everton looking likely to join the remaining three members of the big four in the semis.

Cream rises to the top and it really is difficult to look beyond the teams that occupy four of the top six spots in the Premier League this weekend. Fulham are having a successful season but given the current vein of form Manchester United are enjoying it is impossible to see anything other than victory for the Reds.

Odds of [1.94] look to be tremendous value and can only be down to the uncertainty surrounding the strength of side that Sir Alex will field. Confidence is so high at Old Trafford that if they choose to play Mike Phelan and Brian McClair in midfield those odds will still be appealing.

Chelsea are a more conservative [1.6] to win at Coventry and although that is a realistic price it is difficult to advocate taking them on. It's one to leave alone because although they will probably progress it may well be after a replay.

Arsenal have had their problems of late but everything is relative. They have beaten Roma in the Champions League, drawn at home to Fulham and picked up three points at West Brom in the last week and they are deemed to be having a tough time. Fans of three clubs in the North East of England who would part with their kidneys to enjoy that kind of form! The [1.55] for the Gunners to win at home to Burnley is a great price.

It's the final tie that I find intriguing - Everton v Middlesbrough. It looks a tough draw for the men from the Riverside but they progressed through the last round in similar circumstances. Then they were pitted against the team in seventh place, West Ham and went through after earning a replay with a draw at Upton Park. This time they travel to the side in sixth place and have to do it all again.

Gareth Southgate said after the win against Liverpool that the cup triumph against West Ham had inspired a new found confidence. That confidence will have been dented after the mauling they got at White Hart Lane in midweek and the paradox is that a win in the cup may well increase their chances of relegation due to fixture congestion and mental distraction. Conversely, a defeat will be a further blow to their confidence and will make it difficult for them to turn their league form around.

These are worrying times for the Smoggies and Southgate will be losing sleep worrying about his club's plight. After the Everton game he faces five Saturdays which he will have targeted as being opportunities to pick up maximum points. Consecutive games against Portsmouth, Stoke, Bolton, Hull and Fulham are likely to determine which division Middlesbrough will be playing in next season. That is one heck of a distraction and for that reason I think that the [1.75] available on Everton to win at the first attempt is the bet of the weekend.

You can't pick and choose when you win football matches. If you could, Gareth Southgate would swap the 2-0 home victory in the FA Cup against West Ham with the 1-1 draw they shared at the Riverside in the Premier League. After all, two points is probably the difference between pitting his wits against Sir Alex next season or facing Fergie Junior in a league fixture labelled the "battle of the 'Boros" - against Peterborough!