FA Cup / Gary Boswell / 07 November 2008 / 3

It's Gary Boswell's favourite time of year as good, solid non-league sides are priced up wrongly to beat teams several divisions above them in the FA Cup. Here are the best bets from this weekend's matches.

The Boz is tracking this week's likely non-league heroes in the FA Cup....

Crawley Town 3 Havant & Waterlooville 0
Crawley Town 0 Havant & Waterlooville 3

What is the difference between the above results - both achieved in the past two weeks of non-league football?
The obvious answer is the scoreline but for betting form purposes, the answer is that the former is a proper football result (achieved this midweek in the Setanta Shield) whereas the latter result was achieved in the FA Cup.

Everybody knows you can throw form study out of the window when weighing up FA Cup fixtures and nowhere does that more seriously apply than when considering Shaun Gale's Hawks from Havant and Waterlooville. They have been dire this season in Blue Square South and are on a current form run of just three points from the last eighteen. And yet, when the FA Cup beckoned, they went to Broadfield Stadium - a renowned Conference Premier fortress and a certifiable home banker most weeks for Non-League football predictors - and Ian Simpemba belted in a brace that sent the Red Devils reeling out of the competition.

Current form for Havant in the FA Cup can also arguably include the scalp of Division One leaders of the time Swansea City (two chances the Swans had and they could win neither!) and a half hour at Anfield in which they deservedly led 2-1. With that little bit of luck on their side, that game could have gone 3-1 and we might have witnessed the biggest FA Cup shock of all time.

Fair to say that this season's Havant are not the same team. Not the same set of players and it would be folly really to use last season's results in weighing up the chance of turning over Brentford Live on ITV on Sunday. The price is tantalising though. Around [5.5] at home against a Brentford side that are coming in on the back of a confidence-denting two defeats.

The common denominator for Havant is manager Shaun Gale who still rules the roost and may well have received instructions to forgo league considerations in pursuit of the money on offer in the FA Cup. It makes sound financial sense the way things are structured at the FA at the moment and one can look at how BSS champions Lewes have fared for their league success last season and compare it with Havant's money-spinners at Anfield and Vetch Field.

I don't know whether I believe lightning could strike twice in Hampshire. Let's just say that I'm not betting against it on this occasion. Brentford look very much a Lay proposition at anything under even money.

Pinpointing the actual shocks this weekend is tricky. There are so many potential ones at tremendous value that I'm tempted to re-introduce a favoured system of level stakes the lot regarding value FA Cup outsiders in the First Round Proper. It regularly shows a profit and when you've got the likes of Conference hi-fliers Stevenage at [10.0] to win away at a Leicester City side who were woeful midweek in the Johnstone Paints, it is tempting to suspend critical faculty because you know there will be a shock somewhere (likely more than one) and the odds on offer will pay for the losers!

As a professional (but on this occasion reluctant) tipster though, I've narrowed it down to two for me. I scored 2/4 with Leiston and Evesham in the last round and heart would like to stick with them but my head is saying Evesham's visit to Plainmoor may be a step to far for them and although I have tremendous respect for Leiston's efforts, I'm a fan of what Micky Mellon is doing at Fleetwood and fancy he might have the mettle to undo the Leiston dream.

Elsewhere it is and in particular, I'm napping Betfair Radio's favourite uncle, Graham Heathcote, to engineer the demise of Luton Town at Kenilworth Road. The Hatters are a Conference side in all but name following their landmark points deduction this year and their [1.7] price to see off the Robins is madness of Lewis Carroll proportions! Heathcote has got the Robins in good shape this season with Lee Elam and Chrissy Denham providing excellent width to that sharpshooter Colin Little who is the most consistent goalscorer in the past five years of the Conference.

Goalkeeper Stuart Coburn is capable of a rick so I won't be putting the mortage on but at [6.5] or maybe better, Altrincham are a fabulous value for the shock of the day and I'll take them along with Steve Fallon's Histon at [4.0] to see off Swindon as my two to keep the FA Cup profits rolling.

RECOMMENDED BETS:

1pt on Altrincham at [6.5] or greater to win at Luton
1pt on Histon at [3.0] to beat Swindon

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(3)

1. Daz | 07 November 2008

   I was at that Setanta Shield game and Crawley were impressive how on earth Pittman didnt score at least a hat-trick I will never know. Havant were awful and I think there win against them in the FA Cup was a fluke baring in mind their league and other FA Cup results this year. It was also good to see Crawley play well after the rubbish they served up against Salisbury.
   By the way I thought the Leiston v Lewes game went to a replay ;-)

2. gary | 08 November 2008

   Leiston did indeed go to a replay but profit was made on Evesham in the initial games. Leiston look a possible to make round two now!I always recommend backing teams again in replays if the odds are right.
   I've been challenged to show a profit in every round of the FA Cup. Two rounds down. Eight to go!

   Boz

3. Daz | 09 November 2008

   I had backed Leiston in the first game but forgot to back them in the replay which was rather frustrating, backed them yesterday as well and will probably go in again on the replay this time. I will certainly be backing Altrincham whom like you I fancied and think they can win their replay

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