FA Cup / Mike Norman / 16 January 2008 / 1

Mike Norman is not convinced by Manchester City's Premier League form but fancies short-term Cup success

During the course of last weekend, a few sporting events provided me with some light-hearted chuckles. The first was when Bobby George was asked who he thought would win the darts final, "If either player can get a lead, and hold it...", said Bobby - this is called stating the obvious. While over in America, with KJ Choi in the rough, a golf commentator said, "Choi only has one option here, he can either play for the centre of the green or he can fly it all the way to the flag". Surely that's two options - and a 'slip up' on the commentator's part.

While looking closely at the Premiership table, I set about doing some simple arithmetic and came up with: potential slip ups + the obvious = good betting opportunities

The football club I decided to concentrate on, with my newly found Einstein like brain cells, was Manchester City, a club so over-achieving that if it were Eddie 'The Eagle' Edwards, it would be jumping out to about 40 metres by now.

I'm not saying that City don't deserve to be flirting with the top four because some of their performances and results would suggest otherwise - but there is no way in this world that Thaksin Shinawatra would have suggested to Sven that his priority was to finish in a Champions League position. From that perspective, Man City are doing better than anyone would have expected them to be doing.

So, back to the arithmetic. One of the reasons behind City's success has been their fantastic form at the City of Manchester Stadium. They have accumulated 29 points at home (from a possible 33) and remain unbeaten, though five of their nine wins have been by virtue of a 1-0 scoreline. I can see City 'slipping up' sooner rather than later on their own patch, and when you add this to the fact that they are not as good as the Big Four, then [9.2] about them for a 'Top Four Finish' looks extremely skinny - I'd much rather be a layer at [9.8].

As I alluded to above, Manchester City keep plenty of cleans sheets. This is thanks mainly to their well organised defence, and in particular, the brilliance of Richard Dunne and Micah Richards. While it's not certain that this partnership will suffer a dramatic downturn in form, it's pretty obvious they can't keep every striker at bay every week. In fact, I'm certain that players like Elano, Hamann and Petrov will all at some stage under perform, and if this happens, City will struggle to create goals.

Sven-Goran Eriksson has proved, and will continue to prove, that he is a great club manager, and I think he is being realistic when he dismisses any chance of City finishing in the top four. However, with the arithmetic I have outlined, can they even finish in the top six?

Remember, 'slip ups' (City are going to lose at home sooner or later) added to 'the obvious' (they are not as good as the Big Four and some players will under perform) equals a good betting opportunity. In this case, that opportunity could well be to lay Man City in the 'Top Six Finish' market at [2.76], rather than back them at [2.66].

Given that the usual suspects will finish in the top four, this leaves by my reckoning a further six teams battling to finish fifth and sixth. Everton would be my strong fancy to fill one of those places at [1.84], leaving Villa [2.08], City [2.66], Blackburn [4.3], Portsmouth [5.8] and West Ham [8.5] fighting for the other place. With just seven points separating all these teams, it's easy to see why I would lay City (and Villa) at those odds and look elsewhere.

Wherever Man City finish (probably seventh or eighth in my book) you have to say they will have had a good season. But good will become brilliant if they manage to lift the FA Cup and you can have odds of [24.0] if you think they can do it. First they must see off West Ham this evening, and I think they have every chance at odds of [2.1] - The Hammers are [4.2], The Draw is [3.45].

The tie has to end tonight and I'm confident it will be settled in normal time - how about another City 1-0 scoreline at [7.6]? I haven't come to this conclusion using any arithmetic, it's just a hunch - this time I will let you do the math!

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1. sarah | 16 January 2008

   I like your reference to Eddie The Eagle, what a great jumper he was, NOT lol.

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