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FA Cup
FA Cup Betting: Kranjcar and Pompey's day at Wembley
TQ is delighted to see Portsmouth and Cardiff in the final but feels it won't be a case of every underdog having it's day as he can't see beyond a win for Harry Redknapp's Portsmouth
Whether your team is involved or not FA Cup Final day is one of the premier days in the footballing calendar. There is a buzz that surrounds the day that is unmistakeable and even as a neutral you are drawn in by the build-up to the game. The atmosphere when the teams come out to the middle is spine-tingling and you can't help but realise just how special the cup final really is.
The match-up on Saturday has an unusual look to it as there is no sign of a team from the Big Four and there is also the presence of a lower league side. Cardiff will go into the game against Premier League Portsmouth as the underdogs and as such, will no doubt get much of the neutral support. On paper they will need any help they can get as they go head to head with one of the top teams in England.
Pompey have a side with a wealth of experience and with Campbell and James both returning to training this week they will be further strengthened. Cardiff do have players with plenty of experience but will be reliant on the players who have played at the highest level, like Fowler and Hasselbaink. I can't see any good reason for excuses from either team personnel wise.
The Match Odds market has the look of a market that is going to see more and more support for Portsmouth. Over the course of the week they have been backed in from [1.88] to current odds of around [1.78]. I can totally see the reason behind it as any assessment of the teams shows a clear discrepancy between the two outfits. But for an end of season slump Pompey could well have finished higher than the respectable eighth they did, and that slump can easily be attributed to a case of cup final fever.
For me the [1.78] still represents value and although you have to factor in that Cardiff will probably raise their game, I still can't see how that will be good enough. In Muntari and Diarra they have the players who will dominate proceedings in midfield and sadly for Cardiff they just won't be able to get the ball off them on the wide open space of Wembley. A back of Portsmouth at these odds can be the only recommendation.
Pompey may not have scored many goals in recent weeks but their defence has remained as strong as ever. It is only the presence of David James that stops me jumping right in to a back of Over 2.5 Goals. However, the more I think about how the game will pan out the more I see goals in the game. Portsmouth must be the aggressors in the game and with the firepower at their disposal it may not even require a goal from Cardiff to see us over the 2.5 goal mark. Currently trading at [2.44], I can see good profit in backing Over 2.5 Goals.
Expect the opening exchanges to be quite frantic in what is the most important game for either club in a long time. The onus will be on the man in the middle to keep control of the game and it has to be said that Mike Dean generally likes to do that by brandishing the cards. In just 28 Premier League matches he has dished out 9 red cards and 106 yellows! With so much at stake I can see some tasty tackles flying around and Mr Dean won't be able to resist for too long.
The Bookings Odds market should be your first port of call for a bet on this match and I highly recommend backing 9pts and Above at odds of anything around the current [3.05].
If you are looking for some interest in the goalscorer markets, then there are plenty of options. The First Goalscorer market is wide open and with Portsmouth most likely to get on the scoresheet first the player that stands out to me is Nico Kranjcar.
The Croatian has a tremendous strike on him and has already found the net at Wembley this season, although Scott Carson will want to forget it. I can see him working the Cardiff keeper early on and he is sure to give you a shot at landing the odds at around [11.0].
It promises to be a great day at Wembley for fans, players and all those watching on TV. It's the perfect afternoon to get those bets on put your feet up and watch the action unfold.
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Events calendar
30/07/2008 | Cricket
Eng v RSA 3rd Test - Edgbaston
08/08/2008 | Olympics
2008 Summer Olympics




