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FA Cup Betting: History suggests goals will be at a premium

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"Mystical" Mike Norman looks at the history books rather than his usual crystal ball to tell us why he expects the 2008 FA Cup Final to be a low-scoring affair

One Nil to Cardiff - or at least in the traditional cup final song contest it is! The excellent (yes I did say excellent) and very catchy "Bluebirds Flying High" entered the UK charts at number 15 on Sunday, while Killjoys Portsmouth decided against having a bit of fun and making an official cup final record - tut tut.

So without further a do, let's get into the FA Cup spirit and listen to a bit of music;
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=DkvOXCI3Y94&feature=related

To exact revenge on the football pitch, Portsmouth can currently be backed at [1.35] to lift this season's FA Cup - Cardiff City are available at [3.75].

So who'd of thought it? In an era where the 'big four' usually dominate, it's Portsmouth and Cardiff City that have made it to the FA Cup final - though if you're a regular reader of betting.betfair you were warned back in January that Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United would be having a day off this Saturday - http://betting.betfair.com/football/fa-cup/the-betfair-contrarian-why-none-of-the-big-four-wi-040108.html
Portsmouth and Cardiff in an FA Cup final might not be everyone's cup of tea, but it makes a refreshing change to see two teams starved of recent success have an opportunity to win this glittering prize. Here at Betfair we are far from bemoaning the lack of a 'big' team in Saturday's showpiece - instead we've got a wide range of markets for you to have a bit of financial interest in and make your cup final experience even more enjoyable.

My strongest advice, in a match that appears too tight to call, is to ignore recent form and league positions completely. This is a major cup final, and despite connections of each club saying otherwise, the last few weeks have been like a racehorse gallop ahead of a major horse race - this Saturday is the day of reckoning, not the last few weekends.

So given the above, I'm sure there will be a lot of you neutrals who would rather be on Cardiff at [5.5] in the 'Match Odds' market, than the [1.8] about a Portsmouth victory - the draw is [3.75] by the way.

Four of Pompey's victories in this competition have been virtue of a 1-0 scoreline, with all of those wins being gained through a second half goal. If you think Portsmouth will win, then these stats open up a few possibilities for a bigger return. Another 1-0 victory can be backed at [6.8] while the 'Draw/Portsmouth' option in the 'Half-Time/Full-Time' market is available at [5.1].

Portsmouth have been very solid defensively this season, none more so than away from Fratton Park, and with the news that David James and Sol Campbell will be fit to play, then a Pompey clean sheet looks a distinct possibility at [2.14]. The worry for Harry Redknapp's men is at the other end of the pitch as Jermain Defoe is cup-tied. The not so prolific Kanu is likely to lead the line and he should be available to back at around [7.5] in the first goalscorer market once it takes shape.

Unlike Portsmouth, Cardiff have led at the interval in their last four FA Cup victories, so you Bluebird fans should definitely think about the 'Cardiff/Cardiff' option at [12/5], while three clean sheets in a row will get you interested in the [4.5] about Dave Jones' men recording another at Wembley. Robbie Fowler faces a late fitness test but is only likely to be on the bench at best with Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink and Paul Parry continuing in attack - they should be available to back at around [12] and [16] respectively to net the first goal of the game.

Saturday's finalists have played ten FA Cup ties between this term, and significantly eight of them have been won by a single goal with seven clean sheets being recorded. This all points towards a low scoring tight affair with the 'Under 2.5 Goals' bet likely to be a popular choice with punters at odds of [1.68]. You can have [2.44] about 'Over 2.5 Goals', [4.6] about 'Over 3.5 Goals' and [10] if you think the match will conclude with 'Over 4.5 Goals'.

I haven't got a strong opinion on the outcome of the game, but I certainly wouldn't be surprised if it ended goalless ('0-0' is available at [9.2]) and a winner emerging in extra-time. Betfair's excellent 'Method of Victory' market gives us an opportunity to back an extra-time Cardiff victory at [24] or an extra-time Portsmouth victory at [9.4].

Now, I've just got one question to ask - have you got that bloody Cardiff City song out of your head yet?

"We are Cardiff City and we're going to Wembley, watch the Bluebirds flying high....."

Enjoy the game.