FA Cup Betting: Can anyone stop the Big Four?

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 30 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Martin O'Neill's squad combines the perfect blend of youth and experience, Joe Kinnear knows all about the FA Cup and Mark Hughes should strengthen considerably in January. But is it enough to persuade Mike Norman to back anyone but the Big Four to win the world's greatest club competition?

The FA Cup - the oldest and most famous knock-out competition in the world - and one that generally gets won by one of the 'Big 4' clubs in English football.

Prior to Portsmouth's triumph in last season's competition, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool or Manchester United had won the FA Cup 12 seasons in a row and can boast a record of 17 successes in the last 20 years. Only Pompey, Everton and Spurs have broken the Big 4's monopoly during those two decades, and the prospects of another 'surprise' team winning this season's competition look as remote as the history books suggest.

In the Big 4 v The Field market you can back one of England's elite teams to triumph at odds of [1.4]. These odds may appear skinny, but considering the success of the Big 4, then statistically speaking, their odds should be a lot shorter (17 wins in 20 years should merit odds of just [1.18]). You can back The Field at around [2.2] but expect those odds to rise as the market gains more liquidity.

Arsenal and Chelsea will have no problems overcoming Plymouth and Southend on home soil when FA Cup Round 3 gets underway this weekend, though Liverpool and Manchester United both face tricky away ties at Preston and Southampton respectively.

The dilemma for punters is trying to ascertain which clubs (if any) will fail to take the competition seriously in the initial rounds.

Liverpool are exceeding expectations in the Premier League ([3.9] to win it) and would unquestionably concede the FA Cup if it meant they were still in the title race come May, whilst Manchester United are facing a fixture pile up and will almost certainly rotate their squad against the Southamptons of this world.

However, there are no such doubts over Arsenal and Chelsea. Phil Scolari has so far played his strongest available team for every game he has been in charge of, and I would expect Arsene Wenger to field his strongest side with the FA Cup perhaps being Arsenal's only realistic chance of silverware this season.

Arsenal are just [1.25] to win their third round fixture - Chelsea are even shorter at just [1.14] - though Liverpool and Manchester United are slightly bigger at [1.54] and [1.32] respectively. The combined odds on all of the Big 4 to win this weekend are approximately [2.9], but though I don't fancy any of them to fall at the first hurdle, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least one replay needed.

The Outright Winner market is understandably dominated by the clubs I've mentioned so far (Chelsea [5.4], United [5.5], Arsenal [7.6], Liverpool [9.0]), but at a price, and definitely as a back-to-lay option, the three for me are Aston Villa ([17.5]), Manchester City ([17.5]) and Newcastle United ([55.0]).

Martin O'Neill is an outstanding manager who gives every team the respect they deserve. Villa are still in the UEFA Cup and fighting for a top four position in the Premier League, but O'Neill has a strong squad with an excellent blend of youth and experience. I don't see them having any problems against Gillingham at the weekend, and a favourable draw in round four will see their odds shorten to somewhere near single figures.

The same can almost be said of Manchester City. They have a strong squad that is expected to be strengthened considerably in January. The only worry is their away form, but the glory of the FA Cup is that you can win the competition with just a few trips on the road - one of them being to Wembley. They should ease past Nottingham Forest on Saturday, and hopefully the likes of Robinho, Elano, Kompany and Jo will realise what a special competition this really is.

Newcastle are my final selection and I really fancy them to do well. They have a difficult third round tie away at Hull City but I can see Phil Brown resting a few of his better players now that Hull's magnificent start to the season is beginning to falter. Newcastle manager Joe Kinnear knows all about the FA Cup, winning it as a player and getting to the semi-final as a manager, and I fancy him to weave some magic in guiding the Magpie's to a good cup run.

Other teams to watch out for are Tottenham ([19.0]), Everton ([26.0]) and Middlesbrough ([36.0]), whilst Portsmouth can be backed at [44.0] to defend the trophy. Runaway Championship leaders Wolves can be backed at [160.0], and are my idea of a team to watch for if the cup offers as many surprises as it did last season.