FA Cup / Ed Nicholson / 01 January 2009 /

Ed Nicholson attempts to continue his rich vein of over/under 2.5 goals betting and this weekend focuses his attentions on the FA Cup third round, where he also explains why M&M is more than just a popular chocolate...

Ask any football fan in any pub up or down the country and he will tell you that the third round of the FA Cup always produces shocks.

As a rule I tend to try and go against perceived 'group/crowd mentality' when placing a bet, as I believe that if everyone thinks 'it' will happen 'it' might, but not at the odds 'it' needs to in order to make 'it' a viable betting proposition.

But, although certainly not wholeheartedly agreeing that there are, 'always shocks', I do feel there are sound reasons that explain why certain Premiership teams do struggle against lower league opposition, especially when travelling away from their grand stadiums.

Many of the reasons can be explained, in my opinion, by M&M's - motivation and momentum.

Both are extremely important factors in football and when a so called 'giant' takes on a so called 'minnow' I feel that the lesser side's motivation becomes as high as it can possibly reach, while the players from the higher league club cannot possibly be motivated as much as they would be if they were playing a big Premiership or European outfit.

Secondly, the so called 'giant' club may take the opportunity to rest some of its first choice players and others who have been carrying an injury over the last few weeks. Remember some players may have played five or six games during December. This means that a team's momentum is broken and this usually is more negative than positive.

Thirdly, but not so prevalent nowadays, a lower league team's home ground may be a smaller, different atmosphere for big time International playersto go and play at - especially if the pitch is muddy, rough and uneven. These pitches and conditions bring players of differing ability closer together so a low scoring game can often occur. A lower scoring game can quite often be a draw or a surprise 0-1 or 0-2 victory to the home side, although it can equally mean a surprisingly low scoring win for the so called 'giant'.

This season's third round FA Cup has drawn a number of Premiership teams away from home to lower league sides and I am interested in two specific games that I feel have all the right ingredients to be low scoring affairs - with a belief that we could indeed see a shock or two in the process.

Sheffield Wednesday v Fulham

The Owls will have plenty of support at Hillsborough on Saturday afternoon when Fulham come to the Steel City, and this game has all the hallmarks of a low scoring match.

Sheffield Wednesday are in 13th place in the Championship, although on home form alone they are currently the seventh best side in the league. They have only lost two of their 13 home games, and have conceded the fewest goals of any Championship home side (seven). However they also find it extremely difficult to score as well and have only netted 15 times at home this season - no team has scored fewer in front of their own fans in the Championship this term.

Fulham meanwhile are struggling away from home and have only managed to score twice on the road, though they have also only conceded six times. Most notably they have so far failed to win in the Premiership away from Craven Cottage, drawing five of their nine games on the road, including four consecutive 0-0's.

Roy Hodgson's primary aim is to keep Fulham in the Premiership and I feel that he could rest some of his regular first team, although he didn't last season when the Cottagers went out to Bristol Rovers at the Memorial Ground on penalties following a 0-0 90 minute replay result.

Recommendation:

Both sides have solid defences and Sheffield Wednesday are in good form at home while Fulham don't concede away from Craven Cottage. I also feel that the motivation factor is firmly on Wednesday's side here, which will bring the sides' unquestioned differences in basic quality nearer together. Even if Fulham do score they may well just shut out the Owls.

2pts Sheffield Wednesday v Fulham Under 2.5 goals @ 1.76

Gillingham v Aston Villa

Kent's only Football League side play host to Aston Villa, a team on the up, and one that will be aiming for a Champions League place next term.

We all know about Aston Villa, a side who are becoming increasingly difficult to beat - but Gillingham are equally competitive in their own league, three tiers behind the Villains.

The Gills are in 10th position in League Two, while they are the second best team in their league on home form. At Priestfield Stadium they have only conceded seven times and lost just once in front of their own fans. Only 14 players have played in Villa's Premiership games and loss of momentum, plus motivation of the Gills players allied to the low scoring statistics means that this has to be an under 2.5 goals recommendation - especially as the television cameras will also be present an added incentive for Gills fans and players to 'overperform'.

Villa are also becoming a team with more patience than last season when they attacked wily nily resulting in open games and high scoring matches. Their performances against Hull and West Ham away from home demonstrate they have matured as a unit. But, having said that it may well be that like in the Carling Cup and the Uefa Cup, some regular first team players are rested.

Recommendation

1pt Gillingham v Aston Villa Under 2.5 goals @ 2.03

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