FA Cup Betting: Big Four set to dominate

FA Cup / Andrew French / 26 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

We're already down to the last 16 of the FA Cup, all of the 'Big 4' still are involved and have managed to avoid each other in the Fifth Round draw... Andrew French looks back on the weekend's action and ahead to rest of the competition...

There will always be some fool who suggests that some of the balls are warmed up in the oven or popped in the freezer shortly before the draw - and mathematicians will doubtless know the probability of the four market leaders being kept apart.

However, for all those who felt last season's competition lost some of its gloss because the 'Big 4' had all been knocked out before the semi-finals, the likelihood of one of the Premier League title chasers also lifting the FA Cup moved a step closer with yesterday's draw.

Favourites Manchester United (4.1) will be away to a Championship side in the last 16 - either revitalised Nottingham Forest (320.00), who have home advantage in the replay, or Derby (360.00), who have already beaten United once this season in the Carling Cup.

Chelsea (5.0) also face a trip to Championship opposition, and their hosts Watford (370.00) will not struggle for information on the visitors. Hornets manager Brendan Rodgers joined the club only a few months ago from Stamford Bridge, where he was reserve team manager - and his assistant is Frank Lampard senior.

Watford would doubtless like to force a replay and earn a few quid to help their financial plight, although Rodgers would have to balance that with the effect of an extra game on a small squad that is sitting perilously close to the relegation zone.

Although they still have to overcome Cardiff (320.00) in a replay, Arsenal (5.9) will be confident of reaching the quarter-finals after being handed a possible home tie with either West Brom (130.00) or Burnley (330.00). How refreshing, after the goalless draw in Wales yesterday, to hear Arsene Wenger saying that although he could do without the extra game, if that's what it takes to stay in the FA Cup, so be it. In an era when clubs are often criticised for devaluing the competition, Wenger's comments are a shot in the arm.

Liverpool (9.8) look to be the 'Big 4' club at most risk on not reaching the last eight. They failed to beat Everton (23.0) twice in the space of a week at Anfield, and the Toffees have home advantage in the replay. And whoever does progress looks likely to be facing Aston Villa (17.5) - Martin O'Neill's side would gain ever further respect if this season were to end with the FA Cup in the trophy cabinet. They have to beat Doncaster (1000.00) in a replay at Villa Park to get to the fifth round, but it's hard to see the Championship side springing a surprise.

Last year's fifth round saw only six top flight teams involved, and there was still a League One side involved (Bristol Rovers). A year later, as many of the 11 of the last 16 could be from the top flight, and there are no participants from beneath the Championship. Indeed, it could be that all the last eight are Premier League clubs.

Sheffield United (85.0) will sense the chance of an upset but visitors Hull (40.0) are impossible to underestimate such has been their impact since being promoted. Swansea (120.0) have already claimed a famous scalp by taking out holders Portsmouth, and they have a fair chance of repeating that feat against Fulham (28.0), who made exceptionally heavy weather of seeing off non-league Kettering.

Whoever wins the replay between Sunderland (50.0) and Blackburn (40.0) will be confident of overcoming mid-table Championship side Coventry (220.0), while West Ham (22.0) host Middlesbrough (46.0), whose manager Gareth Southgate will have to balance the boost cup success can bring with the need to concentrate on Premier League safety.

Full Fifth Round draw (ties to be played February 14/15/16):

Sheff Utd v Hull
Watford v Chelsea
West Ham v Middlesbrough
Sunderland/ Blackburn v Coventry
Derby/ Nottm Forest v Man Utd
Swansea v Fulham
Liverpool/ Everton v Doncaster/ Aston Villa
Cardiff/ Arsenal v West Brom/ Burnley

Fourth Round replays:

Tuesday, February 3
Arsenal v Cardiff
Burnley v West Brom

Wednesday, February 4
Aston Villa v Doncaster
Blackburn v Sunderland
Everton v Liverpool
Nottm Forest v Derby