FA Cup Betting: Aston Villa v Chelsea

FA Cup / Jaymes Monte / 09 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Yuri Zhirkov wins his second penalty of the game in Chelsea’s 7-1 win over Aston Villa.

"If we forgive Villa for that 7-1 defeat and put it down as an anomaly then their record against the top clubs in the league makes for impressive reading. They have beaten Man United at Old Trafford, beaten Chelsea at Villa Park, defeated Liverpool at Anfield and are unbeaten against both Spurs and Manchester City this season."

The Stamford Bridge massacre is still fresh in the memory, but Jaymes Monte believes that that might just galvanise the Aston Villa players ahead of their FA Cup semi-final tie...

Dubious offside decision or not, Chelsea deserved their win over Manchester United last week and deserve their position at the top of the Premier League table. The victory reaffirmed the form that they had shown in the previous 10 days when beating Portsmouth 5-0 then thrashing Aston Villa 7-1, and English football's two most prestigious prizes are now firmly within their grasp.

The FA Cup has had its knockers over the last couple of years but Chelsea have shown the competition great respect this season - not once have they made wholesale changes to their starting 11 - and now they are reaping the rewards with a semi-final visit to Wembley.

This, of course, will be Villa's second trip to the national stadium this season after they lost to Manchester United in the Carling Cup final earlier this year. However, the injustice that they feel from that game along with the very recent drubbing at the hands of opponents Chelsea could serve as massive motivators ahead of this semi-final tie.

Villa have already bounced back amicably from that defeat by keeping a clean sheet when registering a 1-0 away victory over Bolton last Saturday. And there is also the danger that the Chelsea players will still be thinking about the simplicity of that victory at Stamford Bridge, no matter how much the manager and coaching staff try to drill it out of them. That is why I think that the odds of [1.6] on a Chelsea win are too short.

If we forgive Villa for that 7-1 defeat and put it down as an anomaly then their record against the top clubs in the league makes for impressive reading. They have beaten Man United at Old Trafford, beaten Chelsea at Villa Park, defeated Liverpool at Anfield and are unbeaten against both Spurs and Manchester City this season.

One major factor in the outcome of this fixture could be the fitness of Richard Dunne; the defender was forced to withdraw from training on Thursday with an Achilles problem and could miss the game as a result. The good news for Villa is that James Milner will be available again after he was left out of the side that beat Bolton at the weekend. Didier Drogba is also in contention for a recall to the Chelsea side although Carlo Ancelotti may be tempted to stick with the system which served him so well at Old Trafford last week.

Goals don't seem to be a problem for Chelsea right now, 14 in three games says everything that you need to know on that front. So no surprise to see an odds on price of [1.9] available on there being more than two goals in this fixture, yet I feel that Martin O'Neill's first priority in addressing their shortcomings of two weeks ago will be to tighten up at the back - a back to basics attitude if you like. So under 2.5 goals at [2.1] is the play on the goals markets for me.

Finally, remember that this tie must be decided on the day so we could be in for both extra time and penalties if the sides can't be separated. Common opinion suggests that the Villa players are tiring and if it goes past the 90 minutes mark then the odds will be heavily in Chelsea's favour. Yet, as O'Neill highlighted, ProZone stats suggest that his side are one of the fittest in the top flight. So if we do get an extra 30 minutes of play it may pay not to jump onto the Chelsea bandwagon quite so hurriedly.

All the recent form lines and performances point towards a Chelsea win, but I think that there could be a sharp sting in the Villa tail and the value bets are to side with The Villans.