FA Cup 4th Round Betting: Saturday's 3 o'clock kick-offs

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 24 January 2009 / Leave a Comment

Will Ipswich be on the receiving end of a Chelsea backlash? Can red hot Scotland cause an upset against the holders? Are Wolves worthy favourites against Boro? Mike Norman attempts to provide the answers as he looks ahead to Saturday's fourth round 3pm kick-offs.

The big FA Cup talking point over the last few days has been Harry Redknapp's admission that he will be sending a much weakened squad to Old Trafford to face Manchester United at the weekend.

You have got to admire Harry's honesty, though there will doubtless be a few grey-haired pensioners at FA headquarters ready to have their say if he is true to his word. The thing is, Harry needn't have said anything. After seeing his first team get hammered 3-0 in 90 minutes by Championship side Burnley, Redknapp has a ready-made excuse for making wholesale changes against United. Some of his players didn't look fit to wear the shirt the other night.

The FA should get off Harry's back and instead take a close look at Sunderland and Middlesbrough this weekend. Both clubs will be fielding a very weak team in their respective matches - though in fairness, that very weak team will be the best 11 players they've got!

Chelsea [1.22] v Ispwich [17.0]; The Draw [7.6]

It's hard to know what to make of Chelsea at the moment, though I have a hunch that last Saturday's dramatic late win against Stoke will be the springboard for a big improvement in their form and I take them to win this game.

Alarmingly, Ipswich have lost their last nine ties against top-flight opposition and seem unable to raise their game for such occasions. For this reason, I'd consider backing Chelsea to Win Both Halves at [2.1], and at [1.68] about Chelsea/Chelsea in the Half Time/Full Time market.

In the ever popular Over/Under markets Over 2.5 Goals has to be the call at [1.62]. Chelsea's four FA and Carling Cup ties this season have averaged 3.25 goals, whilst in the same competitions, games involving Ipswich have averaged exactly four goals. Over 3.5 Goals can be backed at [2.5] and has an excellent chance of being landed.

Portsmouth [1.95] v Swansea [4.6]

Pompey have performed better than I expected them to of late, comfortably beating Bristol City and drawing against Spurs in their last two away fixtures. However, I still think there is a bad performance waiting to happen and it could easily be at home against Swansea. A lay bet on Portsmouth at [1.96] is my inkling.

Swansea have now gone eight away games without defeat, and in all bar one of those games they have gone in level at half time. Backing Draw/Draw ([5.7]) and Draw/Swansea ([11.5]) are my recommendations in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Both teams have been involved in low scoring cup games this season and I expect that trend to continue here with Under 2.5 Goals ([1.91]) and Under 1.5 Goals ([3.8]) being high on the list of possibilities. Perhaps a 1-0 Swansea victory is the way to play (available to back at [14.5]) with the red-hot Jason Scotland (seven goals in seven league games) being the first goalscorer at odds of around [10.0].

Sunderland [2.46] v Blackburn [3.2]; The Draw [3.4]

This game is a repeat of the Carling Cup fixture from earlier in the season in which Rovers triumphed 2-1. However, just a few days later Sunderland went to Ewood Park in the Premier League and avenged that defeat, themselves winning 2-1. Since then both clubs have had a change of manager and a 0-0 draw has been played out in the league. I fancy another draw here at [3.4].

The Over/Under 2.5 Goals market is a difficult one to assess. Blackburn have been involved in some high-scoring cup games this season though they have had a few 1-0s also. Three of Sunderland's cup games have ended 2-1 so perhaps Over 2.5 Goals is just marginally the way to play at [2.08]. Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.91].

I'm sure 2-1 to Sunderland ([10.5]) and 2-1 to Blackburn ([12.0]) will be popular choices in the Correct Score market, but as Rovers have never lost to the Black Cats in FA Cup history (five times they've beaten them), I'm going for them to avoid defeat again by securing a 1-1 draw ([7.0]).

Wolves [2.52] v Boro [3.15]

It's not often that you see a team from outside of the Premiers League favourites to beat their top-flight opposition. But such is the difference in current fortunes for each club that's exactly what we have here, and Wolves have to be the selection to see off a bewildered Middlesbrough.

One bright spot for Boro is that Wolves have now gone four league games without a win, narrowly beat lowly Accrington Stanley (who are they?) in the Carling Cup and needed penalties to beat Rotherham in the same competition. Boro on the other hand thrashed, yes thrashed the brilliant Barrow 2-1 in round three of the FA Cup. If you haven't guessed by now, I'm a Boro fan desperately searching for a hope and a prayer!

If I was a neutral and betting in this game (and I'm not) I'd be going for Wolves/Wolves ([4.6]) and Draw/Wolves ([6.4]) in the Half Time/Full Time market, as well as backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.08] as I fancy this to be an open and entertaining game - and an extremely nail-biting one from my perspective.