FA Cup / Alan Dudman / 27 November 2008 /

This weekend sees the FA Cup kick into gear with the possibility of a lucrative 3rd Round draw firmly in the minds of all teams involved. First though they need to negotiate a safe passage through the second round and as Alan Dudman explains, for League 1 sides there are some difficult ties in store.

It's been a fairly boring week for me in the past few days, the fact I was staying
in on Tuesday night glued to the TV screen watching Police Academy 4: Citizens On Patrol, probably tells you all you need to know.

As entertaining as Hightower and Mahoney are, there is far better to come on ITV this weekend in the shape of live FA Cup action, and it's Leeds United! Yes, my bette noire are back on the screens, and this time they do battle with minnows Histon in what is arguably the tie of the round.

Mind you, a younger Sharon Stone playing Mattson was a most welcome sight in PA4COP. And that's both new and old versions of Stone.

Anyway, having had my confidence restored last week with a couple of winning selections aswell as a [13.00] winner thanks to the Leyton Orient correct scoreline, I am looking to seek some big priced selections and go for a couple of Cup upsets in round 2.

Histon [5.50] versus Leeds United [1.68]
Live on ITV1 2:15pm kick-off

You all know my feelings now on Leeds United, whenever I back them they lose or draw, whenever I am against them, they win 4-0. They are a team that trade on name at the moment rather than form.

And what of that form? In their last four games they've lost to Huddersfield
and Northampton, yet beat the Cobblers 5-2 in the Cup and smashed up
Hartlepool 4-1. You do the math.

Having watched them on Setanta in the first round, I was quite impressed with their build up play. Nice and neat, tippy tappy, kept the ball well, but they didn't have much of cutting edge. Mind you they were missing Jermaine Beckford that night, and he is a massive boost to any team at this level with all of his 19 goals so far this term.

Their opponents hail from the Blue Sq Premier, and not only hailing
from the division but topping it. They are absolutely flying at the moment with 40 points.

Histon have been excellent home and away this term and manager Steve Fallon is doing a grand job with a squad of players I know very
little of or about, most of them seem like younger or homegrown players. I am sure my fellow tipster and colleague 'The Boz' can enlighten you/me more.

Although one thing I do know about them, they know how to defend! They've only conceded 17 goals in 19 games.

Fallon described this Sunday's match as the biggest in their history. The contest has already sold out (unsurprisingly), and it is also the live televised game on ITV...meaning of course more markets and the luxury of in-play.

Histon's journey to the second round has seen them defeat Durham City and League One outfit Swindon, and I think they represent a live outsiders chance to cause a shock.

If you are trading in running you'll obviously be looking for a greater price on Histon, or conversely put in a lay of Leeds @ [1.68], with a view to backing them back near the evens mark to guarantee a nice green screen.

Leeds supporters will no doubt be looking for Jermaine Beckford to bag the goals. The 'hat-trick scored market' will be of interest to them, considering he has already bagged two this term. Not for me however.

Recommendations: Back Histon @ [5.55]
Back Histon to win 1-0

Southend United [1.59] versus Luton Town [6.40]

A tight match this one, but again one I think the away side can cause a shock, perhaps not quite as big as Histon, but the price certainly is!

Readers of this column will know I quite like Steve Tilson's side, and they've had a cracking run of results recently to put themselves back in to the play-off mix.

The Essex club have also had a fairly busy week, the departure of coach Dean Austin to Watford would have caused a minor ripple, whilst a midweek 0-0 at Cheltenham will leave Luton sniffing for a chance of victory.

The fact that Southend struggled to dispose of Telford in the first round, and over two games, tells me it is foolish to be getting involved in anything like the [1.59] on offer.

Luton meanwhile are struggling against their huge points penalty in League Two, and still remain in the red, but they have some players capable on the day... notably the former Norwich forward Paul McVeigh.

It's an old cliche, and anything can happen, and I am going to have a little bet on the Bedfordshire side in the hope they get a much needed lucrative third round tie.

Recommendations: Back Luton @ [6.40]
Back Luton to win 1-0 and 2-1

Bradford City [2.24] versus Leyton Orient [3.15]

Orient have been good to me recently and they are worth noting at the moment. Over the last five games they have THE best defence in League One. I highlighted the return of centre-back
Tamika Mkandwire a few columns back, and he's been instrumental in five successive shut-outs.

Once a side are in that sort of mean form, they represent an excellent betting medium as they just don't concede.

Bradford are going great guns, they knocked out MK Dons in the first round and they sit second in League Two with 33 points.

However, I will base the result around a clean sheet for the O's and have a go at a couple of scorelines. Orient defeated Huddersfield 1-0 in midweek, I am hoping it continues.

Recommendations: Lay Bradford @ [2.24}
Back 0-0 and 0-1

On a lighter note I am away for the next week in the U.S.A and the next column will be in the very safe hands of my good friend and colleague Andy Richmond. Good luck everyone, and I'll tell you in my next instalment if I bump in to Sharon Stone, I hope I
do!

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