/ Ed Nicholson / 20 November 2009 / 1 Comments

Ed Nicholson takes a detailed look at the Premier League fixture list, and points out three bets (two with savers) worth placing in his beloved under/over 2.5 goal column....

I was checking my records prior to writing this week's column and I was surprised that last year I didn't select a bet from any of Saturday's or Sunday's games. Then, after initially analysing each game, I had to check my records again, as I had no less than five games on which I wished to do more in-depth research upon! In short, there are plenty of games that interest me this weekend - but I have selected the three that tick both the value and the most likely boxes.

Chelsea v Wolves

Chelsea will be without Lampard, Drogba, Ballack and Deco on Saturday but the under 2.5 goal option is still available at above [2.50]. That just looks wrong to me.

Chelsea have only conceded once (their opening game) at home in the Premier League this season, while they have scored no less than 16 times at Stamford Bridge in just six matches. Wolves on the other hand have managed to score just seven times and conceded on 12 occasions on the road. However, that figure is a little misleading as they managed to concede five at the Stadium of Light - and that was not indicative of the way they had played throughout the match.

Wolves meanwhile may be forced to rest Kevin Doyle who has had two hard games in the space of a week for Ireland. Without him, Wolves would certainly be less likely to breach the Chelsea defence.

Recommendation

I simply can't see Wolves scoring - so can Chelsea score three goals or more? They may get three but you have to say it is unlikely that they will get four or more against a side that will come to West London and defend - especially with the Blues being without in form goal scorers like Drogba or Lampard.

2pts under 2.5 goals @ [2.52]

0.30pt 3-0 Chelsea @ [8.0]

Man Utd v Everton

Everton usually lift their game for this fixture and I expect this game to be closer than the betting suggests. In the last five seasons Everton have had 1-0, 2-1, 3-0, 1-1, 1-0 results at Old Trafford, and this season David Moyes's side has conceded just seven goals away from Goodison, and scored just six. Only two sides in the Premier League have conceded fewer goals on their travels.

Man Utd meanwhile are struggling for goals. Unusually for them, they have netted on average just over two goals a game, with four teams doing better than them at their respective home grounds. They are also conceding far too many in front of their own fans and with Rio Ferdinand out, things could get worse, though Vidic is likely to return.

With Berbatov doubtful, Arteta, Saha, Bilyaletdinov, Vaughan and Anichebe all missing, the unders at odds against looks a massive play here.

Recommendation

2 pts Under 2.5 goals @ [2.06]

0.15pts 3-0 @ [11.5]

Arsenal v Sunderland

Arsenal may have lost the pivotal Robin van Persie, but I reckon too much has been made of it, and I like the over 2.5 goal option here at odds of around 1.67.

Of course van Persie is a key player in a key role for the Gunners - Arsene Wenger and van Persie himself had been talking about the way he has changed his game to fit into this role - but the way Arsenal play I can see any number of players being able to work effectively (not as well) as van Persie, especially against the likes of Sunderland.

The Black Cats have been playing well of late - winning four of their home games and scoring 15 goals in the process. But they still look susceptible to pace at the back - and that is something Arsenal have in abundance.

Over the years Sunderland have caused problems for Arsene Wenger's side in their native North East. 1-1 last year was preceded by a 0-1, 0-3, 0-4 and a 1-1.

But Arsenal have scored 30 goals in their last 10 league games, while they have netted no less than 16 in their last half dozen games away from the Emirates. Interestingly, Sunderland have conceded a whopping nine times at home - that's the worst record of any team in the top half of the 'home' table - in fact only four sides have conceded more times at home this term.

Sunderland will be missing Kenwyne Jones who has scored five times in the league this season. Darren Bent has got eight and plays.

Recommendation

1pt Over 2.5 goals @ [1.69]

Comments (1)

1. Pete | 21 November 2009

   Very close game, in hindsight

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