Euro 2008 Betting: Germany v Turkey: To score, Half-time/Full-time, draw, The Asian handicap, 9pts and above bookings

Germany v Turkey / Ben Lyttleton / 24 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Even without their injury woes Turkey would still be massive underdogs against Germany, says Ben Lyttleton

The Germany side that swept past Portugal in the quarter-finals was the side that was the first to get through its qualifying group for Euro 2008, the side that scored the most goals in qualifying, and the side that merged Old Germany, with its mental toughness, to Jogi Loew's new Germany, with its tactical flexibility and exciting football. It was not the side that failed to impress in its three Group B games, and led Loew to consider resigning as coach.

Captain Michael Ballack was a major figure behind the tactical change that saw two holding midfielders, Simon Rolfes and Thomas Hitzlsperger, brought in to allow him more freedom to support Miroslav Klose up front that helped the side click, while their opponents, Turkey, have stuttered and stumbled but somehow found their way into the last four.

So there are two questions going into this match: one, which Germany will turn up and two, have Turkey used up all their luck?

Turkey are massive underdogs, their price of [8.6] in the match-odds as much a reflection of their injury and suspension crisis as their players' abilities. Not only are centre-back Servet and captain Nihat ruled out with injuries, but among those suspended are Tuncay Sanli and Arda Turan, two key attacking players. Semih will now start, and though his two goals so far have both come as a substitute, he is Turkey's best-priced anytime scorer at [5.3]. If you do go with that, be patient as over half of his 17 goals for Fenerbache last season came in the last half-hour of games, with four in the last three minutes: no wonder he is Fatih Terim's type of player.

His price is far more attractive than the [3.9] for Mario Gomez, who is unlikely to start the game. But I do like [3.15] for Ballack, who has scored the winner in Germany's last two games and brings out his best in the big matches. I still think Ballack is being overlooked in the tournament top scorer market at [25.0]: he is only two goals behind David Villa, and could well be playing one more game than the Spaniard.

The best prices in half-time/full-time market are the ones that involve yet another Turkish comeback: Germany/Turkey is [55.0], while draw/Turkey is [19.5]. Considering that only two matches have overturned results from first to second half (albeit one of them was Turkey's win over Switzerland, the other Spain beating Greece), I can't see it happening again, especially not with this German side. Even though Turkey have yet to keep a clean sheet, I can see them keeping it tight until half-time which makes the draw/Germany price of [4.5] interesting.

The Asian Handicap market is only worth a look if you think Turkey can keep it tight and the Turkey +0.5 keeps the draw on your side at [2.66]. I prefer the Turkey +1.25 which is priced at [1.85]: even a one-goal defeat will come down on your side in that one.

Loew has spoken of the warmth of the Turkish people when he reflected on his spell as Fenerbahce coach ten years ago, but the Euro referees have not been so impressed, with Turkey's disciplinary record: they average 3.5 yellow cards per game (over one more than Italy, their nearest bad-boy rivals), have committed more fouls than any other team in the tournament (an average of over 21), and, along with Germany and France, are one of only three sides to have received a red card. Even with the lenient Massimo Busacca in charge, the [1.63] for 9pts-and-above on the bookings odds is hard to ignore.

Tags: 9pts and above bookings, draw, Euro 2008 Betting: Germany v Turkey: To score, Half-time/Full-time, The Asian handicap