Spain v Italy: Over/under 2.5 goals

Quarter-Final 4 - Spain v Italy / Dan Fitch / 21 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Spain should win this match-up, says Dan Fitch, but who could write off Italy? Especially if lumbering Luca Toni finally manages to stick one in the back of the net...

Oh dear, this all sounds awfully familiar. The Spanish win the first three group games at a canter and are many people's choice to win Euro 2008.

But then comes it transpires that they are to play Italy in the quarter-final. Suddenly the Spanish media get all jittery. Even Aragones admits that he would have wanted to play anyone but Italy.

And how can blame him? It is 88 years since Spain defeated Italy in a competitive match and the Italians are progressing through this tournament in typically jammy fashion.

The Spanish have a real chip on their shoulder regarding the Italian's brand of football. They consider the Azzurri to be cheats, not to mention boring and negative too. Meanwhile, the Italians consider the Spanish to be a bunch of bottlers, who can't defend to save their lives.

Neither party is wrong in their assumptions.

Like Germany, Italy can normally be relied upon to progress, irrespective of whether they're actually playing well. Even when 1-0 up against ten men, they didn't look dominant and were lucky to have a free kick deflect off Thierry Henry's ego and into the French goal.

The irony of the foul committed by Abidal for the penalty, was that if he'd just left Luca Toni to his own devices, then the hapless Italian striker would have almost certainly ballsed things up.

Toni's performance against France was a master class in wayward finishing. He is certainly a handful and causes all sorts of problems, but unfortunately never for the bloke operating the scoreboard. Toni's ark-like quest for a goal has been hugely entertaining and has bizarrely been one of the highlights of this tournament.

Finishing is not a problem for the Spanish. The pace of Spain's front line is bound to cause problems for the sluggish Italian defence. Gattuso and Pirlo will also be a big loss in the Italy midfield.

All of which should make the Spanish confident, particularly considering that they beat Italy in a recent friendly. If they do fulfil their potential and beat Italy, then expect Spain to become the new favourites for Euro 2008.

One of the tiresome things about this tournament, is the amount of bandwagon jumping that's gone on. Portugal and Holland have fluttered their eyelashes and everyone has gone weak at the knees. The Germans look lousy in a couple of games and are immediately written off ... until they beat Portugal and are instantly installed as favourites again.

But I digress, because in these dark waters we care not about results, but goals. The statistics don't make happy reading for fans of overs. None of the last three matches between these teams have broken the 2.5 goals barrier, with the friendly in March ending 1-0 to Spain, courtesy of a David Villa goal.

Perhaps a good omen though, is that the last time the sides faced each other in a competitive match, the overs were reached as Italy beat Spain 2-1 in the 94 World Cup.

But neither side has a recent history of flourishing in the European Championships. From the last three tournaments, Italy have only made the knockout stage once (in 2000), where they failed to break 2.5 goals despite reaching the final. Spain reached the quarters in 96 and 2000, with only the latter tournament's 2-1 defeat to France, breaching the 2.5 goals limit.

There is also the factor that goals have been generally at a premium in this tournament. There were 57 goals in the group stages, compared to 64 in 2004 and 65 in 2000. These 57 goals have brought only nine instances of overs, compared to 14 in 2004 and 13 in 2000.

Italy have been involved in only one match featuring three goals or more in this tournament and that was only because the Dutch thrashed them. Every Spanish game has broken 2.5 goals so far and it will be a concern for them that they have yet to keep a clean sheet, against limited opposition.

Under 2.5 goals is the big favourite at [1.64], with overs at [2.54]. With the Spanish potentially unsure of themselves and Italy being... well Italy, then it's hard to oppose the unders.

Tags: David Villa, Italy, Luca Toni, Spain