Quarter-Final 4 - Spain v Italy / Matthew Walton / 21 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The formbook says Spain but Italy have been here before .. and succeeded, says Matthew Walton

When all is said and done football, like betting, is all about results. It doesn't have to be pretty, it just has to be effective.

Italy seem a good example of this point. Hammered by the Dutch in their first match, handed a lifeline by their keeper Buffon in their second against Romania and then hanging in to beat France in their third group game in order to make it to the quarter-finals.

There's been nothing impressive about their play thus far but they're here, in the QFs of another major competition and in with every chance of lifting another major trophy.

Contrast that with the Spanish.

To many observers, they've been the most exciting side in the tournament. Now that might be a little unfair on the likes of Holland, but in Fernando Torres and David Villa they possess the most potent strike-force in these championships. They have midfield strength and creativity to match. They won all three of their group matches - the third game with a second XI - and have been the perfect combination of good football and winning football. The exact opposite of Italy.

Hence the clash of these two countries in Vienna is a fascinating one. Will it be the style of the Spanish or the substance of the Italians which wins the day? Will Spain let down their supporters yet again? Will Italy squeeze into the semi-finals when Adrian Mutu should have sent them home eight days ago?

It's a great match-up in a great tournament and we have been poring over the statistics to find the winning angle on this match.

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade. Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Spain v Italy - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Spain - P72 W48 D15 L9 F176 A52, clean sheets 34/72 (47%)
Italy - P74 W45 D23 L6 F123 A47, clean sheets 39/74 (52%)

There's not a lot in this as you might expect from sides ranked No.3 (Italy) and No.4 (Spain) in the world. Spain have won 66% of their matches and Italy 60%; Spain have lost 9%, Italy 8%. Spain score more goals but Italy concede less. It's the classic case of the irresistible force and the immovable object. Spain's attack is their strength, Italy's defence is their strength. Italy don't attack so well but Spain don't defend so well. It really is that tight between the nations.

Spain v Italy - Match Facts

If you were looking for any clear daylight between these two in this category, once again you need to look pretty hard to find any. In previous head-to-heads we have a very close call indeed - Spain 8, Italy 9 and 10 draws. That pretty much says it all.

Spain do steal a march under their coach Luis Aragones who has enjoyed a better term of office thus far than his counterpart, Roberto Donadoni. Spain have won 70% of their matches and Italy 59% under their current managers.

However, to balance that we have the Italian record in these championships. Not necessarily more experienced but certainly more successful.

Checks and balances once again between the two sides.

Spain v Italy - Market Analysis

Outright result - Considering the proximity of the statistics, the betting markets strangely contradict these findings with a definite divide between the nations. Spain [2.6] are the clear favourites, maybe due to recent form, perhaps as Italy are without Pirlo and Gattuso (two huge losses). Italy [3.2] are priced up equally with the draw [3.2]. Question is, should the form of the two sides and their likely line-ups drive so big a wedge between their prices? Answer = probably not. A lay of Spain is, by that token, the call.

Correct score - There have been lots of draws between these sides (37%) which must make the chances of a stalemate high. The 1-1 [7.0] would make more appeal than the 0-0 or 2-2. Italy won three qualifiers 2-1 [14.5] and Spain have won three of their last six matches 2-1 [11.5] should you wish to back a 90 minute result in this market.

First goalscorer - With regards to Spain it's hard to look anywhere else bar Villa [7.2] and Torres [7.6] and, as we've said before, it's Villa who has the better strike rate of the two. Italy have problems in this department. Alessandro Del Piero [10.5] comes into the reckoning for Italy as Toni is off form and Pirlo is missing.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - All the above analysis has suggested the 'over' [1.52] is the play. That's perhaps a risky prospect in a game where Italy are playing but the loss of Cannavaro plus the presence of Torres and Villa hardly points to a 0-0 draw.

Conclusion

The collective head of Italy has already been on the block in this tournament, only for them to get a last-minute reprieve. And it could very well prove to be something which the other countries come to regret.

The loss of Pirlo and Gattuso, especially, can't be over-stated enough. The data is one thing but we make assumptions based on a level playing field and this certainly aids the Spanish cause. That said, previous matches have had similar under-currents and the data is merely a accumulation of such games. Over time it does even itself out.

What wins the day? Style or substance. We'll find out soon enough but for now make sure you get the best of the value on Betfair for what should be a classic.

Tags: David Villa, Fernando Torres, Italy, Spain