Quarter-Final 4 - Spain v Italy / Dave Farrar / 21 June 2008 / Leave a comment

It's almost too tight for Dave Farrar to call ... but there appears to be a hunch for the Italian nous to come through

This the tightest of the quarter-finals and, for me, the hardest one to call.

On tournament form so far, Spain are favourites, even though they haven't done enough to convince anyone that they have the game and the mindset to reach the semi-finals.

They were clinical against Russia, although when they were faced with a tougher, better organised team in Sweden and really struggled to break them down. The style of that match doesn't bode well for the challenge posed by Italy.

Rather like Germany, Italy have got better in each match they've played, and that's a good profile for a tournament winning team. I think they can be forgiven the result against Holland because they were still suffering after losing Fabio Cannavaro, and they were unlucky not to at least score in that match.

Against Romania they were again a little unfortunate not to win, as they had much of the game, although eventually it was only Gigi Buffon's penalty save that kept them in the competition. On such moments do these competitions hinge.

We saw the best Italy of all against France. They made the most of every French fault, and made sure that the injury to Franck Ribery and loss of French creativity meant the end for Raymond Domenech's team. Luca Toni led the line well even though he wasn't able to score, and he must start finding the back of the net if Italy are going to win Euro 2008.

David Pleat told us on Betfair Radio that Toni could still be value to finish as the tournament top scorer, given the number of promising positions that he has got himself into so far. He is trading at [95.0] at the moment, and is probably worth a tenner to win just short of a grand. Spain have no worries at all about the form of their strikers, but the Italians will have studied tapes of their game against Sweden and will be confident that they are vastly superior defensively, even without Cannavaro, and that Villa and Torres can be stopped.

It's dangerous just to lazily go along with the common view that "Spain will blow it, because that's what they do" but I happen to think that Italy will find a way through to the semi-finals. There's a lot to be said for the winning habit, and the world champions certainly know how to win big tournaments. Spain are on a fantastic unbeaten run themselves but that includes friendly matches and there will be nothing friendly about Sunday night. I think that Italy will edge it, but I want the draw on my side. I'm laying Spain at [2.62] in what I think is a much closer game than that price suggests.

Correct Score

It was 1-0 to Spain when the teams met earlier in the year, and I wouldn't be surprised if we have the same tight scoreline here. Italy are the masters of winning when they need to, and, even though that sounds like another lazy cliché, it's also pretty accurate. Italy to win 1-0 at [9.4], and march ever closer to a final against Germany.

First Goalscorer

Watching Luca Toni so far in the tournament has been pretty painful. Given the chances that he has missed, he could easily be ahead of David Villa in the top scorer charts. As it is, he is yet to get off the mark, although he did have a perfectly good goal disallowed against Romania. I don't normally like tipping short priced strikers in this market, but I've been impressed with the way that Toni has kept looking for chances and hasn't hidden when a lesser player might have. I have a feeling that he'll be the difference between the teams here, and I'm tipping him to score first at around [8.5]

Half-Time

I expect a tight game here, and can see two quality sides feeling each other out for at least a half. Italy's more open style of play under Roberto Donadoni means that the Azzurri could start strongly and grab an early goal, but I think that this game will go the same way as the March friendly that these two played out. It was 0-0 at half time then, and I'm going for that half time scoreline here at [2.6]

Corners

There have been some fantastic corners bets in this tournament so far, but I just don't see an edge in this game. The pre-tournament statistics told us that Spain had the highest corner count in qualifying, but haven't really replicated that here, the absence of Joaquin from the squad being one of the possible factors. Spain have won only 16 corners so far, and Italy have taken 20, mainly due to the 12 that they forced as they pressurised Romania. There may be some value in going for 9 or under, but not for me. I'll leave this market alone.

Tags: Italy, Luca Toni, Spain