Quarter-Final 4 - Spain v Italy / Tareq Quiroz / 21 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Fortune beckons for the great European underachievers - but can Spain take their chance or will Italy make it to the closing stages of another big tournament? Tareq Quiroz leads you through the betting for the last quarter-final of Euro 2008

Halfway through the quarter-final stages and we still have no option but to expect the unexpected.

Euro 2008 has been a quite remarkable event and I for one have long since forgotten that there was no home nation involved. If your outright selection is still in the event then you have to be happy and I can see no good reason why any of the teams should not feel confident that they will be walking away with the trophy next weekend.

Few would argue that the glamour tie at the quarter-final stages is the Spain v Italy clash. Two super giants were always likely to meet at this stage with the way the groups panned out, but few ties can be more appetising than this one. The world champions will be desperate to add the European crown to that title, whilst Spain will be keen to dispel their tag of underachievers. Whatever happens in this mouth-watering clash neither team will have achieved their goal but most certainly they will have overcome a huge obstacle.

If both teams were at full strength I would have edged towards a win for Italy. This game has all the hallmarks of a fixture where Spain will fall down, but you cannot underestimate the negative effect that the missing midfield duo of Genarro Gattuso and Andrea Pirlo will have on the Italians. The suspended Pirlo in particular is going to be a vital missing cog in the Italian machine, and it is hard to see who will provide the likes of Toni with the ammunition.

Spain on the other hand have a full squad to choose from and you can expect Luis Aragones to revert to the team that started the first couple of group games.

I am always wary of getting too involved with Spain but surely they must nick this one and as such the Asian Handicap is a great place to start your punting. The middle line is Spain -0, which gives us the added insurance of the draw resulting in no bet. With Spain trading at [1.82] they represent some good value in what promises to be a tight affair.

The starting 11 that Aragones will put out is a formidable proposition and I expect them to make the running early on. Fernando Torres and David Villa have both looked dangerous in the early stages of the group games thus far and with Italy slightly shaky at the back I am confident that if Spain are to win this game then it will be courtesy of an early goal. It is certainly worth backing Spain/Spain in the Half Time/Full Time market at current odds of [5.0], although I would recommend a small saver in the same market on Spain/Draw at odds of around [17.5].

Spain’'s threats are obvious but that doesn’t make them any easier to defend against. The Italian defence, missing the inspirational Cannavaro, will really struggle against the great movement of Torres and Villa and with Iniesta pulling the strings you can expect those guys to get in with clear chances at some point during the game. Villa is the top goalscorer thus far, but is Torres who I feel is most likely to get on the scoresheet and at odds of [3.0] he is a must back in the To Score market.

There is an awful lot at stake for both teams and you can be sure that any opportunity to grab even the slightest advantage will be taken. Neither the Serie A or La Liga are exactly short of a booking or two and you couldn'’t really argue that this game has the look of a cleanly fought contest. Expect both teams to go at each other hard and the referee may just be tempted into his pocket early, if he is then you can guarantee that there will be plenty more cards to follow. I am never too keen to take a short price in the Bookings Odds market but in this case it is the only option I can see. Backing 9pts And Over at odds of around [1.7] is certainly the recommendation here.

This clash will finalise the semi-final line-up and whoever comes through this tough tie will take a lot of confidence into the latter stages. One word of caution though, if you are betting on the Outright market then you have to factor in that playing such a big game at this stage can often lead to a let down in the next match.

Tags: Andrea Pirlo David Villa, Fernando Torres, Genarro Gattuso, Iniesta, Italy, Spain