Quarter-Final 3 - Netherlands v Russia / Matthew Walton / 20 June 2008 / Leave a comment

We're all familiar with the old footballing adage which states that 'form is temporary, class is permanent'.

And, adapting that saying to our own work, what it means is that although recent form might say one thing, long-term form might very well say another. When this happens, as intelligent rather than instinctive backers, we should choose the path most trodden i.e. stick with the formbook.

The perfect example came in the first QF as Germany went off as the underdogs for their match against Portugal which prior to the start of the championships they would have been favourites to win. In the space of just three group matches their prices had flip-flopped. And, we all know what happened thereafter.

Naturally, this doesn't happen every time but it happens often enough to keep us convinced that this kind of approach is the right one to pursue.

With this game, as you'll see, we have another case in point. Holland have become flavour of the month as a result of the first phase. They've blown away the likes of France, Italy and Romania with surprising ease. As for Russia, they've have done just enough to progress.

Now they meet in Basel with one side already through to the SF's (Holland) and one side already out (Russia) - well, that's what the markets are telling us.

A little premature? Quite possibly. As you'll see from our analysis there's a point to be made that a bet for the Dutch isn't necessarily the best investment on this match. This game deserves a bit more study ...

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade.

Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Holland v Russia - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Holland - P68 W44 D14 L10 F143 A42, clean sheets 39/68 (57%)
Russia - P63 W35 D14 L14 F111 A60, clean sheets 27/63 (42%)

When we discussed the Croatia v Turkey match we were faced with a similar story to the one we see here. Holland win 64% of their matches, Russia 55%. Holland lose just 14%, Russia lose 22%. Holland concede 0.61 goals/game, Russia let in 0.95 goals/game. Clean sheets, Holland come out again on top, by a huge 15%. All the statistics which matter, whether in defence or in attack point to the Dutch being too strong. Backers of Russia can draw little comfort as their side trail Holland in every aspect.

Holland v Russia - Match Facts

There's no let-up either for the Russians when it comes to these figures. Looking at the two managers and it's Van Basten who comes out in terms of wins, what's more his side score more than Hiddink's and concede less.

Qualification wasn't that impressive by Holland but, then again, Russia didn't breeze through themselves. So, overall, it has to be another confirmation of the opinion that Holland are the more likely of the two sides to win. The draw, statistically, is no more or less prevalent than in any other set of average results.

Holland v Russia - Market Analysis

Outright result - Holland [1.74] are warm favourites to triumph inside the 90 minutes with Russia [5.3] and the draw [4.00]. Given those odds, Holland would need to win this match around 6 times if it were played out on 10 occasions. That seem fair? If so, take the price. But remember, historically they've only won 4 of 8 previous meetings (that's 50% or 2.00). Basically they are slightly under-value and the call, as determined by the data, would be to lay them.

Correct Score - Russia concede, Holland score - but not that many. Their group games are a little misleading in this respect. The 'lay the Dutch' scoreline would have to be 1-1 [9.2] or Russia 2-1 [19.0]. Should you find Holland irresistible then 2-1 [10.0] would have to be the advice.

First Goalscorer - Holland had 7 different first goalscorers in 12 qualifiers, 5 different first scorers in 5 friendlies and 3 different first scorers here! A very open market where the tendency is to gravitate towards two players - Sneidjer [12.5] and van Nistelrooy [6.4]. Russia are similarly abundant in options but, for them, Roman Pavlyuchenko [9.2] is the most reliable option.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - we have to 'over' even at [1.34]. With 5 of their 6 matches here going over the mark, 4 of their 5 previous meetings, all Holland's recent friendlies (5), all Russia's recent friendlies (3) - it's the only logical choice.

Conclusion

Another match where popular opinion will give the win to Holland without so much as a thought. Yes, they have played very well and qualified for this phase with consummate ease.

However, pride comes before a fall. Even putting the data to one side for a moment, the common sense approach would say that Holland have maybe over-performed and the Russians under-performed thus far. Hiddink would love to put one over his native country.

A fascinating match and, to be true to our research, one which offers favourites at rather dubious value.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, football stats