Quarter-Final 3 - Netherlands v Russia / Dave Farrar / 20 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Upset looms as fast improving Russia led by street smart Hiddink meet potent but incomplete Dutch

The OK Corral moves to Basel for the night, and I can't remember being more excited by a football match.


The teams that have played the most expansive, clever, quick thinking football at the European Championships come head-to-head in what should be a glorious and unpredictable game.


Ahead of Russia's final group match against Sweden, I was concerned that Russia would be bullied out of the tournament, but I needn't have worried. Andrei Arshavin's return gave his team the momentum that Russian fans hoped it would and he acted as the touchpaper for the fireworks around him. As the strong running full backs Anyukov and Zhirkov pushed forward, the clever Zyrianov made darting runs, and Pavlyuchenko enjoyed one of the best nights of his career.


Our Russian correspondent Jonathan Wilson told us on Betfair Radio that if the injured Pavel Pogrebnyak had been playing then Russia could have won 6-0. I can't disagree with him.


Guus Hiddink is starting to do the trick once again in a major tournament and it adds to the drama that he is up against his home nation. No one will know better how to beat the Dutch than Hiddink and he has the players here to pull off a big upset.


Holland put in glorious performances in their opening two matches, and were suitably professional in the third, but I still think that there are question marks about them. Their defensive stats are good, and only Thierry Henry has scored against them at Euro 2008, but that could be a bit misleading.


Both Italy and France missed big chances in those group games, and Russia's fast moving style is tailor made to worry the rather ponderous Dutch centre backs. If you back Russia, then you have to take the leap of faith that their own defenders will be able to do their job, and they seem likely to concede here, but Russia are way too big a price to win in 90 minutes in what might end up as a shootout for a place in the quarter finals.


Russia are good enough to win this tournament and I'm backing them at a massive [5.4] to cause a big upset.

Correct Score

It's a question of take your pick. There seem certain to be goals in this game and I could honestly see it finishing 5-3 either way. Given how difficult it is to pin down a correct score when goals seem likely to fly in, I'm going to take a punt on "any unquoted". One team needs to get four goals for that bet to come in, and there's every chance of that happening on what could be a crazy night. The price of [9.6] isn't the most generous, but it's worth a small stake.

First Goalscorer

Konstantin Zyrianov hit the post in the first match, scored the only goal in the second match, and hit the post again in the third match. And yet you can still back him to score first at [20.0]. This has to be down to people just not recognising how good Zyrianov is and you should take advantage by backing him to get the first goal.

Half-Time

I think that there'll be goals, I think that it is in the nature of both sides to go for it right from the start, and therefore a lay of a 0-0 half time score is my suggestion here. I'll be having a sizeable bet on over 2.5 goals in this game, but another way of getting with that is in the half time market, and so I'm going for a lay of a 0-0 half time score at [3.1].

Corners

Despite their open style, the Dutch don't get involved in high corner counts too often. Their three games so far have resulted in make ups of 8, 8, and 3, and two of those occasions their opponents have won more corners.


In contrast, the games involving Russia have ended with 10, 16, and 16 corners and there are good reasons for these figures. The Russians love to attack from out wide and the Dutch wide men tend to cut inside to cross the ball. Amazingly, Holland are being priced up as favourites in the "corners match bet" and this is completely wrong. Russia have to be the bet to win the corner count at [2.2].

Tags: Andrei Arshavin, Guus Hiddink, Holland, Konstantin Zyrianov, Russia