Quarter-Final 3 - Netherlands v Russia / Editor / 20 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Stats on sport have been dusting off Russian greats and scratching beyond the surfaces of Dutch masters to make sure that, once again, everything is illuminated going into tomorrow's semi-final.

Half-Time

The Netherlands are W2-D1-L0 at HT so far in this tournament, and they have trailed at the break in only 2/19 overall in competitive games outside their homeland under Marco Van Basten (W9-D8-L2 at HT). At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands' HT record is W11-D8-L5, with all the draws and the last three HT deficits coming when they failed to score in the first half. In knockout ties at major tournaments since 1988, they are W4-D7-L3 at HT.
In all competitive games outside Russia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Russia are W9-D6-L8 at HT, but have a W0-D1-L4 HT record against teams ranked in the top 10 (including a HT deficit against Spain in their opener in this tournament). At major tournaments since 1994, Russia are W4-D6-L5 at HT, with two HT leads and one deficit so far in this tournament.
There have been goals in the first half in all bar one of the games for these countries so far at this tournament, which points to a HT leader (Russia under Guus Hiddink have been level at HT only when the first half has been goalless). The Netherlands are W11-D2-L0 at HT when scoring in the first half and are reasonably priced [2.5] for a HT lead.

HT/FT

In competitive games outside their homeland under Marco Van Basten, the Netherlands' most common outcome has been W-W (9/19) and they have turned all nine HT leads into FT wins, including in both games at this tournament. They have lost only two out of seven when level at HT, with four D-W and two D-D. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, they have had 9/24 W-W (W9-D1-L1 at FT after leading at HT).

The FT result has matched the HT position in 18/23 of Russia's competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, including all three at this tournament. Overall, seven have been W-W, seven L-L and four D-D. At major tournaments since 1994, they have won 4/4 when leading at HT (including 2/2 at Euro 2008) but otherwise have a poor second-half record, losing 4/5 when trailing at HT and 5/6 after being level at HT.
With a first-half goal indicated and the Netherlands more likely to score, the Netherlands W-W [3.0] makes most appeal in this market.

Netherlands clean sheet

The Netherlands had kept a clean sheet in 20/28 competitive games under Marco Van Basten going into this tournament and have added two more in their three games so far. They now have 12 clean sheets in 19 games outside Holland under Van Basten. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 11/24, though they have conceded in 10/14 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1988.
Russia have scored in 17/23 of their competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, including all three at this tournament, but have failed to score in 3/5 against teams ranked in the top 10. They have scored in 10/15 at major tournaments since 1994.
Russia have a good scoring record overall but they have more problems against the top nations and the Netherlands clean sheet [2.38] looks a touch big given their solid defensive record under Van Basten.

Russia clean sheet

Russia have kept a clean sheet in 9/23 of their competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, but have conceded in all five games against teams ranked in the top 10. They have kept a clean sheet in only 3/15 at major tournaments since 1994, but two came in their last two games at this tournament against Greece and Sweden. Under Guus Hiddink, they have kept a clean sheet in 10/15 but none in three against teams ranked in the top 10.
The Netherlands have a good scoring record under Marco Van Basten, scoring in 16/19 competitive games outside Holland and in 23/26 competitive games against teams ranked outside the top 10 (against teams ranked in the top 20, they have scored in 6/8, with the two blanks coming against Portugal and Argentina at the 2006 World Cup). They have scored in 10/14 knockout ties at major tournaments since 1988.
The Netherlands have a strong chance of scoring, which is reflected in the odds on Russia not to keep a clean sheet [1.21].

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.