Quarter-Final 3 - Netherlands v Russia / Dan Fitch / 20 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The Dutch are every neutral's favourite. Their football is beautiful to watch and played with such a flourish that it's always on the precipice between perfection and disaster. Their kit is great too and they hail from a country where many a man has enjoyed a stag night that they remember very little about. But is it a good thing for everyone to like you?

People don't tend to like winners and the fact that the Netherlands are so popular is symptomatic of the way Dutch hopes normally end in glorious failure.

It's like when you're going out with a girl and you meet their male friends. You instantly mistrust the quietly cool one, with the brooding good looks (Italy). An intense dislike is taken to the argumentative, engineering student with the dyed blonde hair (Germany). But the always entertaining one, that's slightly goofy looking and rides a bike around? Yeah, he's alright.

That's the bottom line. The Netherlands are well liked because they are neither really respected or feared. Would Italy be quaking in their boots if they had to play them in the semi final? No. They'd think that lightning is unlikely to strike twice.

Nevertheless we will enjoy the Dutch show, for however long it's on for. The quarter final clash against Russia has the potential to be particularly entertaining for the neutral, after Hiddink's team put in a great performance against Sweden.

Arshavin was finally let off the leash and like a rabid dog, scared the absolute bejesus out of everyone. Such was the amount of chances created, that Russia could have got into double figures, but one wonders if they were made to look better than they should have been by the lacklustre Swedes.

Hiddink will enjoy pitting his wits against his native country and will at least be able to look on the bright side if Russia lose. Although with Russians tending to be as inclined towards conspiracy theories as the Italians, I'd suggest that Hiddink watched what he ate for a couple of weeks afterwards.

Holland and Russia have met only once, back in February 2007. On that occasion Holland won 4-1, in a match unusual for the fact that the first goals wasn't scored until the 68th minute.

Of course the Dutch have met the Russians before, back in the good old days when they could fill their team with players from Dinamo Kiev and call themselves USSR. Most famously they played twice in the 1988 European Championships, which Holland won, with neither game breaking 2.5 goals (though surely there must be a case for Van Basten's famous strike being worth at least two or three mere mortal goals).

Holland have only broken 2.5 goals once, from their three quarter final appearances at European Championships since 1996. But on that occasion, they not only broke 2.5 goals, but also 3.5 goals, 4.5 goals, 5.5 goals and 6.5 goals, as they delivered a 6-1 thrashing to the artist formally known as Yugoslavia.

The Dutch scored more goals than any other in the group stage of this tournament with nine, whilst conceding only once. On average their games produced 3.33 goals per game. This is particularly impressive considering the put out a largely second string side against Romania, though the likes of Van Persie and Huntelaar wouldn't be second choice for many nations.

Russia conceded four against Spain, but have not let in one since. This is in part due to the lack of quality of their opponents and it will be interesting to see if they have learned from their mistakes and can restrain the quality of the Dutch.

Unders is the narrow favourite at [1.91], with over 2.5 goals at [2.08]. I'm sure that there will be goals in this, with neither defence watertight. Holland may have conceded few goals, but this has largely been down to the heroics of Van der Saar. The strength of both set of attackers should bring an over 2.5 goals payout.

Tags: Andrei Arshavin, Edwin Van der Sar, Euro 2008 Betting, Gus Hiddink, Klass Jan Huntelaar, Marco Van Baster, Netherlands, Quarter finals, Robin Van Persie, Russia, Ruud Van Nistelroy