Quarter-Final 3 - Netherlands v Russia / Ben Lyttleton / 20 June 2008 / Leave a comment

So Russia coach Guus Hiddink gets the knock-out tie he wanted, against his own country and the nation he managed from 1994 to 1998. The Netherlands began the quarter-final stage as favourites to be outright winner, they were [4.7] to Russia's [19.5] ­ after topping the Group of Death where, admittedly, they had things go all their own way.

Early goals against Italy and France played into their hands, and as their opponents attacked, they were able to use the pace of Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie to hit them on the counter-attack. It will be a different story if they fall behind in a game and have to chase it ­ if that happens in this game, expect Russia to do a Netherlands and pick them off at will on the counter: against Sweden, Russia attacked with fearsome pace and precision and, buoyed by the return of Andrei Arshavin ­ who, although highly-rated, played as well as anyone could have hoped in his first game in the tournament ­ have no problem in creating chances.

Scoring has not been so easy for them: Roman Pavluychenko could be tournament top-scorer if he had taken all of his chances (though he has scored twice) and you wonder how many more goals Russia would have scored had Pavel Pogrebnyak been fit. Nevertheless, with goals expected in this game ­ the over 2.5 market has come in from [2.28] to [2.08] ­ Pavluychenko is [2.8] in the anytime scorer make-up, though it¹s hard to ignore Arshavin at [3.1]. Konstantin Zyryanov deputised brilliantly in the absence of Arshavin in Russia¹s first two games, and hit the post twice on either side of his winner against Greece. He is an unsung hero of this Russian team and priced at [7.0] to score against the Dutch.

Marco van Basten will restore Ruud van Nistelrooy to the top of his attack with the in-form Dirk Kuyt, Wesley Sneijder and Rafael van der Vaart just behind them. The only one who hasn't scored so far is Van der Vaart, and with his ability to strike from distance, his price of [4.6] represents the best value. Van Nistelrooy is a more restrictive [2.25] while Sneijder, one of the players in the tournament, is worth a look at [3.6].

The half-time/full-time market is an interesting one as Russia's half-time score-line has not changed at full-time in their three group matches: Netherland's second-half goals win over Romania was the only game their half-time/full-time changed and with that in mind, you sense that the first goal will be crucial in this one. Netherlands/Netherlands is priced at [3.0] and Russia/Russia at a more attractive [10.5]. With these two teams, one goal can easily lead to two and don¹t forget that the Netherlands did look vulnerable to conceding against both Italy and France before hitting them on the break. I like that Russian price of [10.5] although, if you think Hiddink will play it tighter to start with (something I don¹t think this side are capable of), the draw/Russia is [13.5].

The Netherlands are [1.76] to win the game in 90 minutes and Russia an incredible [5.5]. Russia represents great value at that price, but a safer option would be the Asian Handicap bet with Russia +0.5 which is a pretty generous [2.25]. That has the draw on your side and, with less between these sides than the market seems to think, a tempting option.

Lubos Michel is the referee for this one: he's an interesting choice and he still has a chance of taking charge of the final. He came out of the France-Italy game with credit after showing Eric Abidal an early red card although his decision to book Thierry Henry for a rare tackle surprised some French followers. The Slovakian is one of the more card-happy officials at the tournament, but with these teams' six games so far yielding just seven yellows cards, I would recommend laying the 9pts-and-above market, which is currently priced at [1.4]. With this game a potential interview for the final, Michel will not want to make too much of an impression.

Tags: 2.5 goals market, Andrei Ashavin, Dirk Kuyt, Konstantin Zyryanov, Pavel Pogrebnyak, Rafael van der Vaart, Roman Pavluychenko, Wesley Sneijder