Croatia v Turkey: Match odds, Half Time, Correct Score, First Goalscorer, Corners

Quarter-Final 2 Croatia v Turkey / Dave Farrar / 19 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Aside from the brilliant Oranje and those Russian pickpockets, these two teams have provided us with more entertainment than anyone at Euro 2008. Croatia because they produced the result of the championships, the demolition of Germany. And Turkey because......well, just because.

Twice they've come back from seemingly impossible positions and got themselves out of trouble, and on both occasions they've done it with serious style. There were many question marks about their lack of stomach for the fight before this tournament, and they have answered all of them comprehensively. The question now is whether they can go up a level and beat Croatia.

Turkey were poor against another quality team in Portugal but now they're buzzing with confidence and Croatia are not at Portugal's standard. It will be a battle of the coaches -the vast experience and tactical nous of Fatih Terim against the more instinctive Slaven Bilic. It will also be a battle of the key players - the wiles of Luka Modric and the blistering pace of Dario Srna against Nihat and Arda Turan.

It's a mouthwatering prospect and I can't wait for the game to start. I see it as very tight, not at all easy for Croatia, and potentially explosive. Turkey will miss their goalkeeper Volkan, but Rustu is an adequate replacement and that's not where the game will be decided.

The atmosphere will be fantastic as both sets of fans have been among the noisiest at Euro 2008. It will be a great spectacle, and I advise keeping stakes low and just sitting back and enjoying it as there will be better punting opportunities in the other quarter finals.

The Croatians should win, but they showed in their opening match against Austria, and on a couple of occasions in qualifying that they can struggle to beat teams that fight tooth and nail to stop them. I'm not confident enough to tip Turkey to win in 90 minutes, so I'm going to suggest a lay of Croatia at [2.0]

Correct Score

I think that it may take longer than 90 minutes to settle this. Turkey's gift for scoring late winners wouldn't put me off laying the draw late on if the scores are level, but I actually think that a score draw is a realistic prospect here, provided that Turkey aren't burnt out by their exertions so far. I'll go for Croatia to score early, Turkey to equalise, and the match to finish 1-1 at a price of [8.6]

First Goalscorer

Having put Dario Srna up as a winning tip in the Germany game, my instinct is to swerve him here. Having said that, all of the reasons that he was value for that match still exist. He gets into forward areas, he's an excellent finisher, and he takes free kicks and occasionally penalties. In fact, he was the penalty taker in qualifying before Modric was handed the role here. All of that means that Super Dario really shouldn't be trading at [15.0]. He made us money against Germany, and we should stick with him here.

Half Time

The only game in which Turkey haven't been behind at half time is the one game that they've lost. Pepe's disallowed goal should have given Portugal the half time lead in that first match, and so we can safely assume that Turkey are slow starters. Those pointers alone indicate that we should be backing Croatia to lead at half time, however we think the game will end up. They're trading at [2.7], and if you believe in sticking with recent trends, then that has to be the bet.

Corners

If you took the first two games of these sides into account, then a lay of 9 corners or under would be a strong bet. Croatia were involved in a make up of 11 against Austria, and then of 14 against Germany, while Turkey and Portugal had 12 corners and Turkey v Switzerland 11. In qualifying, both teams averaged between 5 and 6 corners a game, and so there's a likelihood that the final group match make ups 6 and 8 were just a blip, but I'd want a careful look at the price before laying 9 corners or under. I would say that a lay at around [2.4] is a reasonable bet, anything higher is just a bit too risky for me.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Slaven Bilic