Quarter-Final 2 Croatia v Turkey / Matthew Walton / 19 June 2008 / Leave a comment

As backers, and form students, we should always be fully up to speed with the statistics which matter.

All very well trawling through the history books but we need to constantly test our findings against current events in order to check our conclusions and, by that token, determine our bets.

Therefore, having made it through the first phase of group matches, all 24 of them, we now have the chance to take stock as the QF's take place. Bit of revision on what has gone before just to re-affirm our methods and confirm our findings.

For example, in the 24 matches played we've seen 57 goals scored at an average of 2.37 per game. In 10 of the 24 matches (41%) both sides have scored.

Most common results? Not much of a surprise here. There were five 1-0's, seven 2-0's and four 2-1's. Back those options blind and you're doing ok (as long as you get the winner right, that is).

As for the 'over/under', in our case on the 1.5 goals, we have seen 18 of 24 matches have an 'over' - which makes the average 'under' price of about [3.0] seem a little skinny.

And, broadly speaking, these are the kind of predictions our analysis has been producing. That's why, overall, we're showing a profit across our chosen markets. Yes, there will always be the odd match which makes nonsense of the formbook but long-term you won't go far wrong with a steady, statistical method to your betting.

Such an approach we will now use to discuss Croatia and Turkey.

Croatia cruised through their qualification with no troubles whatsoever. Turkey found trouble all along the way before they got here. So, will it be another winner for the formbook as these two sides meet in Vienna?

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade.

Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Croatia v Turkey - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Croatia - P67 W40 D17 L10 F116 A47, clean sheets 36/67 (53%)
Turkey - P72 W39 D20 L13 F128 A62, clean sheets 35/72 (48%)

Croatia win 59% of their matches, Turkey 54%. Croatia lose 14% of their matches, Turkey 18%. Croatia concede at a rate of 0.70 goals/game, Turkey 0.86 goals/game. Croatia keep 53% clean sheets, Turkey 48%. You can see where we're going with this. There isn't a great deal between these two countries - but what difference there is always falls in favour of Slavan Bilic's side. It's by no means a landslide for the Croats so whilst it doesn't explain their price in the market it does explain their position - i.e. favourites to win.

Croatia v Turkey - Match Facts

It's hard to draw any meaningful conclusions from a mere three matches spread over the last 12 years. All you can say is that similar to the 10 Year Trends, if there is any bias to be had it must go with Croatia as they have scored more goals, conceded less and recorded more victories (all of one to nil).

Neither side has a huge amount of experience at this level nor have their managers but, once again, if you look at the figures they do point to Croatia once again.

In short, there is no statistical data which points to the Turks winning this match. Should backers or pundits make a case out for a Turkey win, they must do so on the basis of instinct or impulse and not via a clinical use of the data readily at hand.

Croatia v Turkey - Market Analysis

Outright result - given what has been said above, a Croatia win must be the call if you're looking for a 90 minute result. The question then comes as to whether [1.96] is value for Croatia compared to the [4.9] for Turkey. Likewise, is the draw a runner at [3.4]? The answer to the last point is 'Yes' a draw could happen but for a 90 minute result you have to side with Bilic's men.

Correct Score - harking back to our opening remarks the choice of a scoreline seems clear. More so as Croatia haven't scored more than two in any match and Turkey haven't conceded more than two. Croatia 2-0 [11.5] and 2-1 [9.8] bear most appeal in this respect and seem a sensible route given that they won 3 of 12 qualifiers in this manner.

First Goalscorer - four different scorers so far for Croatia. Luka Modric [13.5] has a hint of value in him as does Ivan Klasnic [9.2] should either add to their one goal to date in the tournament. It's a very open market where team line-ups will have a large bearing on the outcome.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - with the 'over' ratio running at 75% you'd have to say that anything over [1.33], betting blind, was a good price. Here we have [1.52] on offer and given the attacking play of Croatia and the defensive frailties of Turkey this seems a reasonable mark.

Conclusion

Croatia to win? Yes, that seems the logical result on the basis of all the data we have assembled and analysed. To make a case out for Turkey would stray from every principle we try to adhere to in these articles.

For sure, you can argue the point when the questions of price and value are thrown into the mix but even then at least you know that on Betfair you've got the best possible markets available to maximise your returns ... so what are you waiting for?

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds, Euro 2008 quarter-finals, Euro 2008 stats