Quarter-Final 2 Croatia v Turkey / Alsy / 19 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Alister Morgan is delirious about the best Euros he can remember and is tipping irreverent Croatia to put an end to Turkey's Roy of the Rovers' heroics.

What a tournament! There's so much to admire without having to worry about England's inevitable exit via penalties. Resisting my editor's biased suggestion that I should back Portugal, I'm thoroughly enjoying having no affiliation to any particular side and with the tournament's Big Guns not having things their own way these are the best European Championships I can remember.

Croatia have been a big part of this success with an irreverent lack of respect for football's old order. A mere seventeen-years-old, Croatia are an upstart nation in football terms but boy, they sure learn fast. After humbling England in qualifying they proceeded to beat tournament favourites Germany on the way to topping Group B. They are now one of only three sides (alongside Spain and Netherlands) with a 100% record and suddenly no one wants to face Slaven Bilić's team.

After pulling off the comeback of the tournament so far Turkey will be pleased to have made the quarter-finals in any circumstance. The Czech Republic snatched defeat from the jaws of victory with a parting gift from Petr Cech and some sublime finishing from Nihat Kahveci. The 3-2 scoreline was the stuff of dreams and Fatih Terim will be hoping that his side has one more Roy of the Rovers performance left in them against heavily-favoured Croatia.

Terim will not be afraid to shuffle his pack but his major problem is that he has no new cards to play in Vienna's Ernst-Happel-Stadion. Turkey are tenacious and have some talented players but they've also failed to keep a single clean sheet and you can't escape the impression that Czech Republic controlled the last match. I have to assume that the collective talents of Croatia will prove too much for Turkey.

In the Half Time / Full time market it's hard to predict anything other than a victory for Croatia so the question is how much of a win? You can back Draw/Croatia at [5.4] but the more obvious Croatia / Croatia at [3.4] looks spot on. Turkey have struggled to create clear-cut chances in previous games and it's difficult to see Croatia losing concentration at such a key stage of the tournament. Bilić has created a fantastic side full of movement and creativity with Luka Modric the attacking fulcrum around which much of the magic happens.

Tottenham have undoubtedly done a smart piece of pre-tournament business but while Modric and Olić receive all the plaudits at the sexy end of the pitch I continue to marvel at the influence of Niko Kovač. The Croatia captain provides a solid defensive platform in the centre of midfield that seems to sure up the entire shape of the team. If Modric represents the creative heartbeat then Kovač provides Croatia's iron will and with only one goal conceded it's a system Turkey seem unlikely to crack.

The Asian Handicap reinforces Croatia as heavy favourites. You can back Croatia -0 & -0.5 at [1.65] but I would be more bullish about Croatia's chances of winning and jettison the safety net of covering the draw. I think the gulf in class will see Croatia win by two goals and would back Croatia -0.5 & - 1.0 at [2.14].

If you're looking for someone in the Turkey squad who might ignore the script and send Croatian pulses racing then I'd definitely consider Nihat Kahveci at [3.65] in the To Score market or Tuncay at [5.5]. Overall I just can't see Turkey breaching Croatia's resolute defense so backing Olić to score at [3.1] is more likely to see a return but I'd also consider set-piece specialist Modric at [5.2]. Turkey will be under a lot of pressure and that means free kicks and possibly penalties.

Looking at the Bookings market it's hard to see a card-free game when Turkey currently average over 3 yellows a game and Croatia two. You'd have to back 9pts and Above at around [1.47] as neither side are afraid to resort to the rough stuff. Nevertheless I predict that the game will be remembered for the quality of football. Unfortunately for Turkey I suspect that most of the good stuff will come from the opposition. Even Lazarus only managed to rise from the dead once - I just can't see Turkey pulling off another miracle this time.

Tags: Asian Handicap, Bookings., Croatia v Turkey: Half-Time/Full-Time, Draw, To Score