Quarter-Final 2 Croatia v Turkey / Editor / 19 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The tireless Stats on Sport team have hacked their way through the multitudinous jungle of recent football history to get you the goods on Croatia versus Turkey.

Half-Time

Croatia have been level at HT in just over half of their tournament games since 1996 (W5-D12-L6) but have led in 2/3 at this tournament with one HT draw. In competitive games outside Croatia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, their HT record is W9-D10-L6.
In competitive games outside Turkey since the start of World Cup 2002 qualifying, Turkey's HT record is W11-D16-L8, with a high draw rate against teams ranked in the top 20 (W1-D6-L3 - two of the deficits were in this tournament). At major tournaments since 2000, Turkey are W5-D6-L3 at HT.

Croatia have led at HT in 2/3 at this tournament and Turkey have trailed in 2/3, but the overall figures point more towards a HT draw [2.14].

HT/FT

In competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Croatia's most common outcome has been W-W (8/25), including in two games at this tournament, followed by D-D (five). The FT result has matched the HT position in 17/25. In 23 games at major tournaments since 1996, they have had six D-W and five W-W, with the FT result matching the HT position in 13/23.

In competitive matches outside Turkey since the start of World Cup 2002 qualifying, Turkey's most common outcomes have been W-W (10/35) and D-W (seven), accounting for almost half of their results. At major tournaments since 2000, they have had W-W in 4/14, followed by D-D and D-L (three apiece).

Both teams are strong when leading at HT and it will be a concern for Croatia backers if they are not leading at HT, given their high number of games in which the FT result matches the HT position. That would point to the D-D [5.0] as the HT draw is strongly indicated. After two consecutive comeback wins for Turkey, there could be interest in Croatia-Turkey [50] on the
HT/FT.

Croatia clean sheet

In competitive games outside Croatia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Croatia have kept a clean sheet in 12/25, including 5/9 under Slaven Bilic. They have kept a clean sheet in 9/23 at major tournaments since 1996.
Turkey have scored in 80% (28/35) of their competitive matches outside Turkey since the start of World Cup 2002 qualifying, including 6/10 against teams ranked in the top 20. At major tournaments since 2000, they have scored in 9/14.
Croatia's recent clean sheet record is good, but so is Turkey's scoring record, which indicates little edge in this market.

Turkey clean sheet

In competitive matches outside Turkey since the start of World Cup 2002 qualifying, Turkey have kept a clean sheet in 14/35, with just 2/10 against teams ranked in the top 20. At major tournaments since 2000, they have kept a clean sheet in only 5/14 (only one was against a team ranked in the top 20).
In competitive games outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Croatia have scored in 16/25, including 7/9 under Slaven Bilic. They have scored in 16/23 at major tournaments since 1996.
Croatia look likely to score, though Turkey not to keep a clean sheet [1.31] is predictably short.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Bilic, Croatian football, Euro 2008 bets