Quarter-Final 1 - Portugal v Germany / Dan Fitch / 18 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Dan Fitch loves the predictability of international football. The players, managers and kits may change, but essentially everything stays the same.

England will always lose a penalty shoot out. If Scotland qualify for a tournament, they will fail to make the knockout rounds by the slimmest of margins. The Dutch argue. The Spanish bottle it. Brazil have loads of semi-clad attractive women in their crowd.

One other international football cliché is that the Germans will always progress no matter how lousy they're playing. This is just one of footballs laws, written in stone and has only been contradicted on the occasions when the Germans insisted on playing the world's slowest man, Lothar Matthaus, as a sweeper.

Somehow they've done it again, despite playing awfully against an Austrian side that wouldn't look out of place playing in a pub league. Only the leaden touches of the Austrian forwards protected the Germans from conceding and one wonders what an attack that has both pace and quality will do to a German defence that looks like it's running through quicksand.

The Germans' problems don't end in defence. In attack, Mario Gomes has done the impossible, by making Luca Toni only the second worst striker at Euro 2008. His confidence is obviously so low that it would be a major surprise if he started another game, especially with Schweinsteiger back from suspension.

Despite everything, I still wouldn't be surprised if Germany defeated Portugal in the quarter finals, who probably assumed that they would be facing Croatia. The Germans may be creaky in defence, but as Portugal continue to persist with the anonymous Nuno Gomes, this may not be exploited.

Portugal would also be advised against playing for penalties, as they did against England in the last World Cup. I'm not sure I've ever seen a German miss a penalty, though I'm sure that it must have happened at some point.

At least Portugal have had time to rest, having sent out a second string team against Switzerland. Something tells me though that Ronaldo may have had his mind on other things and I for one would almost welcome Portugal's elimination, so the increasingly boring speculation regarding his future could end.

I think Ferguson might as well sell him. The alternative is a season of sulking and I don't think Ronaldo will be placated with a bigger contract. How much can one man spend on hair gel and hookers anyway?

Since East and West came together again to make just 'Germany', there have been five meetings between them and Portugal. Three out of these five encounters have resulted in over 2.5 goals, two of which have come in a major tournament.

Fans of overs betting may be in for a bumpy ride in the quarter finals. In Euro 96 there was only one quarter final that produced over 2.5 goals. There were two instances of overs in 2000 and just one again in 2004.

The Germans did manage to break 2.5 goals on the last occasion that they reached the quarters, in 1996. But over the last three World Cups, Germany have played in ten matches in the knockout rounds, of which only three have beaten 2.5 goals.

Portugal have been involved in six knockout matches in European Championships since 1996, but have only broken 2.5 goals in one of them. In the last World Cup, Portugal played four knockout games as they became defeated semi finalists. The only time they were involved in a match of over 2.5 goals was in the third place play off match, which they lost 3-1 to Germany.

Not surprisingly given the wealth of statistics, unders is the favourite at [1.6], with over 2.5 goals at [2.62]. With both sides having only beaten the 2.5 goals barrier on only one occasion during the group matches, it may be best to err on the side of caution. However, both defences are shaky and I think that overs will present trading opportunities.

Tags: Ballack, Gomes, Klose, Podolski, Portugal v Germany: Over/Under 2.5 Goals, Ronaldo