Quarter-Final 1 - Portugal v Germany / Matthew Walton / 18 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Portugal will go off favourites, but do you dare write off Germany? Matthew Walton has the stats

Go on, admit it. Thus far it's been a pretty good tournament. So much so, you begrudgingly have to admit, the absence of any home interest hasn't been that much of a loss - has it?

And as we stated right at the beginning of this tournament, some 24 matches ago, such a situation does allow us the opportunity to study the action in a much more dispassionate manner. To assess the data free from any patriotic bias. To bet with the head and not the heart. To make money.

And that's what you should have done throughout the group stages. Whether it be the match result, correct score, first goalscorer or the over/under market, you should have backed a few good winners courtesy of the statistics we've provided. Overall, you should be nicely in front.

Yes, a few matches have gone against the grain and made fools of us all but, then again, on several notable occasions the statistics have also proved the public wrong and us form students right. Remember, the formbook always wins in the long-term.

Anyway, with group matches completed we now take our studies onto the latter stages of these championships as we're presented with four absorbing QFs. We start here in Basel as Portugal take on Germany.

Scolari's men have been in good form. Two wins in their first two matches against Turkey and the Czech Republic allowed them to coast over the line against Switzerland. They are legitimate title challengers and deserve our closest attention.

Germany progressed after a typically workmanlike qualification. Outplayed by the technically superior Croats, they out-muscled the ordinary Poles and Austrians. They got the job done but have they now got enough to outwork, or outwit, such talented opposition?

As is our way, we study these matches from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade. Secondly, we examine the more peculiar details of head-to-head form, previous tournament results and managerial records, better known as the Match Facts.

Together this analysis is used to forecast the outcome of matches and, having employed this strategy throughout the group phase, we have to say it's been pretty successful.

So, we will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market and then armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets. Let us begin ...

Portugal v Germany - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Portugal - P70 W45 D15 L10 F160 A48, clean sheets 34/70 (48%)
Germany - P66 W40 D17 L9 F119 A49, clean sheets 34/66 (51%)

There is a difference between these two sides but it's a very subtle one. A casual glance has them pretty even in most categories but the goals scored (2.28 Portugal, 1.80 Germany) and games won (64% Portugal, 60% Germany) just tips the scales. Not in a major way but just enough to substantiate the market view that the Portuguese are the more likely winners. Both countries also draw and lose around the same percentage making this match, at least on paper, a finely balanced affair.

Portugal v Germany - Match Facts

Strangely, having said that Germany score less than Portugal during the last decade we find that more recently, under Joachim Low, it's the other way around. Under him the Germans are every bit as potent as their opponents in attack (and concede less in defence). All of a sudden, Portugal cease to present such an attractive proposition.

Germany also shade what head-to-heads there are available and have the better of the big tournament experience so, all in all, we're not looking at the black and white scenario which many would presume on the basis of the group matches.

Portugal v Germany - Market Analysis

Outright result - Do we have to contradict the popular opinion which says that Portugal [2.56] are good value for this match? Yes, it seems we do. Germany match up in many key areas going into this match and, let's not forget, prior to this tournament it was Germany who were the outright favourites. Why are they now the underdogs? Just on the form of three matches. Regarding this market, the data says to lay Portugal and back a Germany win [3.40] or the draw [3.15].

Correct Score - The 1-1 [7.0] has claims and is the market leader. Portugal drew four qualifiers this way, Germany one. If you fancy a 90 minute result then 2-1 either way appears often enough in both nations' figures to suggest saver material. This is priced at [12.0] for Portugal and [14.5] for Germany.

First Goalscorer - We've seen this market belie the statistics many times in this tournament. Ronaldo [5.9] may well be falsely short due to home bias therefore it's Simao [10.0] for them who is worth considering and with Podolski an injury doubt and Gomez disappointing we look to Miroslav Klose [7.2] for Germany.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - At [1.54] the 'over' is creeping up to an acceptable level. Four of the last five meetings of these sides have been over, all Portugal's group matches and two of Germany's were similarly laden with goals.

Conclusion

Another match where statistically we're being moved away from popular opinion. And, more to the point, it just shows how form is fleeting but class is permanent. If this was the first game of the championships, Germany would be the favourites. Because it's the 25th, Portugal have assumed the tag of jollies.

We're now into the QFs. Expect drama, tension and possibly extra-time. Portugal may well be flavour of the month but dare we write off the Germans? Never a wise thing to do.

As per usual the answers can be found here and the value can be found on Betfair. Time to get stuck in.

Tags: Germany, Portugal