Portugal v Germany: Half-Time, HT/FT, Clean Sheet,

Quarter-Final 1 - Portugal v Germany / Editor / 18 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Those nice Stats on Sport chaps have scoured the recent history between these two to come up with facts that will leave you in no doubt as to where to put your money.

Half-Time
Portugal have been level at HT in just over half of their 23 competitive games outside Portugal under Luiz Felipe Scolari (W8-D12-L3), including all three games in this tournament, and they are W1-D3-L1 outside Portugal against teams ranked in the top 10. At major tournaments since 2000, Portugal's HT record is W9-D11-L4 and they have been level at the break in five of the last six. Under Scolari, their HT record at major tournaments is W5-D8-L3.

Germany's HT deficit against Croatia in their second group game was the only time in their last 20 games at major tournaments that they have been behind at the break (eight HT leads and 11 HT draws in the other 19) and overall their HT record is W9-D15-L4 at major tournaments since 1998. Outside Germany since 2000, they are W13-D15-L3 at HT (two of the deficits were in group games at major tournaments). Post-group phase at major tournaments in the same period, Germany are W2-D6-L0 at major tournaments.
Both teams are very solid in the first half and the HT draw [2.06] is predictably short, though those odds look about right.

HT/FT

Portugal turned HT draws into FT wins in their first two games in this tournament, improving their record of D-W at major tournaments under Luiz Felipe Scolari to 4/7 after being level at HT, but their second-string team had a D-L in the dead rubber against Switzerland in their last match.

In 23 competitive games outside Portugal under Scolari, Portugal's most common HT/FT outcome has been W-W (seven), followed by D-W (five) and D-D (five). At major tournaments since 2000, Portugal's most common outcome is W-W (8/24), followed by D-W (6/24). They have won on all five occasions when they have led at HT in major tournaments under Scolari.
Outside Germany since 2000, Germany's most common outcome has been W-W (10/31) followed by D-D and D-W (six apiece) - they have lost only 3/15 after being level at HT. At major tournaments since 1998, Germany's most common outcome is D-W (8/28), with seven W-W, and the FT result has matched the HT position in six of the last eight.

With both teams good at turning HT draws into wins, or at least holding on to what they have, this is a difficult market to call.

Portugal clean sheet

Portugal have kept a clean sheet in 10/23 under Luiz Felipe Scolari outside Portugal, including five in eight games on neutral territory. At major tournaments under Scolari, they have kept a clean sheet in 7/16, and overall they have kept a clean sheet in 11/24 at major tournaments since 2000.

In all competitive games outside Germany since 2000, Germany have scored in 25/31, while at major tournaments since 1998 they have scored in 22/28.

Germany's scoring record in particular indicates that they will score, though Portugal not to keep a clean sheet [1.53] looks on the short side.

Germany clean sheet

Germany have kept a clean sheet in just over half (16/31) of their competitive games outside Germany since 2000 and the figure is similar (14/28) in their games at major tournaments since 1998.

Portugal have scored in 19/23 competitive games outside Portugal under Luiz Felipe Scolari, with two of the blanks coming in their five games against teams ranked in the top 10 (both at the knockout stage of the 2006 World Cup, against England and France). At major tournaments under Scolari, they have scored in 12/16.
Germany's solid defensive record indicates some value in them to keep a clean sheet [3.2] but that is negated by Portugal's excellent scoring record under Scolari.

About the SOS Rankings
SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

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Tags: Clean Sheet, HT/FT, Portugal v Germany: Half-Time