Quarter-Final 1 - Portugal v Germany / Robert Hughes / 18 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The German coach is in the stand and there are injury doubts about key players. Portugal have lost momentum and Luiz Felipe Scolari has admitted selection mistakes. Robert Hughes predicts a cautious encounter.

Portugal coach Luis Felipe Scolari has admitted that he made mistakes with his team selection for their final group game against Switzerland, for which he rested eight of his first-choice XI. Their subsequent below-par performance may have the effect of denting Portuguese confidence going into this Quarter-Final. While Portugal would appear to have the edge in that most of their team will be fresher than the Germans, they may also have lost some of the momentum they built up with their impressive wins against Turkey and the Czech Republic.

Germany's last two performances have been mediocre, for different reasons. Against Croatia they were accused of being complacent, whereas against Austria they probably showed their opponents too much respect, allowing them long periods of possession rather than attacking from the start and killing the game off. Michael Ballack has suggested that the team was nervous against Austria, suggesting a lack of confidence within the German camp. With Coach Joachim Low banned from the touchline after being sent to the stands during that match, and injury doubts over key players Torsten Frings and Lukas Podolski, their problems are mounting.

So despite the attacking talent on both sides, the uncertainty in both camps may turn this into a fairly cautious affair, at least in the early stages. Overall I would make Portugal favourites for this one - they have more attacking options than their opponents, and the speed of their forwards is likely to cause problems for Germany's sometimes ponderous centre-backs. The loss of Frings would seriously affect Germany's ability to control the midfield, while the absence of Podolski would rob them of their only consistent goal threat. The Asian Handicap market sees little to choose between the two, offering both Portugal -0 and Germany -0, so of the two I would favour Portugal at [1.71].

The disappointing performances of German striker Mario Gomez, after a superb season with Stuttgart, looked set to cost him his place in the team, with speculation that Lucas Podolski could move from left midfield to partner Miroslav Klose up front. However, with Podolski doubtful with a calf injury, Gomez may be given one final chance to prove himself - if you fancy him to find the net at last, he is available at [3.75] in the To Score market. The normally prolific Klose, still yet to score in the tournament, can be backed at [2.75], while captain Michael Ballack, who scored the spectacular winner against Austria, might also be of interest at [4.0].

Portugal's main weakness going forward is their lack of a top-class, consistent centre-forward. Although Cristiano Ronaldo could easily perform this role, Scolari has stuck with Nuno Gomes, who looks a shadow of the player who impressed at Euro 2000. Reserve striker Hugo Almeida may be given a start against Germany, but if not, is likely to make an appearance from the bench if they need inspiration up front, and might be worth a look at [3.25]. Ronaldo is of course always a goal threat, but his odds in this market are understandably short at [2.38]. Playmaker Deco, who seems to have had a new lease of life in this tournament, is also worth considering, at [5.5].

Portugal have picked up five yellow cards so far, compare to Germany's three (plus one red). Given what is at stake, and also considering Portugal's recent history in the knockout stages of tournaments (they picked up ten yellow cards and two red in their three knockout matches in the last World Cup), I would expect the referee to be kept busy here. I would therefore be looking at 9 points and over at [1.66] to be a winner in the Bookings Odds market.

Portugal have scored all but one of their five goals so far in the second half, and sometimes take their time to break down the opposing defence. With the German players likely to be tired following their efforts against Austria, and many of the Portugal team having had several extra days' rest, I would expect Scolari's team to finish the game the stronger. With this in mind, I'd consider Draw / Portugal at [6.0] in the Half Time / Full Time market.

Tags: Booking Odds, Draw, Full Time, Half Time, Portugal v Germany: Asian Handicap, To Score