Portugal v Germany: Match odds, Half Time, Correct Score, First Goalscorer, Corners

Quarter-Final 1 - Portugal v Germany / Dave Farrar / 18 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Tear up the history books, Germany have been insipid at Euro 2008 and their habit of over-achieving means nothing compared to the facts. Portugal, however, are tough, disciplined and can get goals when they need them.

Match Odds

Now it gets tough. Suddenly there's no room for error and no second chances, and that's why the knockout stages of major tournaments tend to veer towards low scoring, attritional football. Portugal are certainly capable of forcing a win out of this game, a more open match would suit Germany, and that is a real turnaround in national footballing stereotypes.

Portugal have all of the characteristics you would usually associate with the Germans. They're tough at the back, very well coached and disciplined, and they have the ability to get goals when they need them.

The biggest problem for Germany remains their defence. They kept a welcome clean sheet against Austria, but that was more to do with the co hosts inability to finish off their chances and the referee's decision not to award a penalty than it was to do with any real improvement from Germany.

Germany look marginally better with Friedrich and Lahm at full back, but I still don't trust Mertesacker and Metzelder in the middle. Portugal's pace going forward seems certain to catch them out and Portugal's price is longer than it should be because people are scared of, ahem, underestimating the Germans.

Sometimes it pays to go against the cliches, and the facts of Germany at this tournament remain very, very simple. They have lost to the only decent team that they have played, and they lost that game convincingly.

Portugal are a level up from Croatia, and it's hard to make a case for Germany when their only in form striker (Lukas Podolski) is struggling for this match, no one else among the forwards looks likely to score, and the pressure on Michael Ballack gets larger by the game. He responded against Austria, but this match will be a different thing altogether, especially with his clubmate Ricardo Carvalho knowing his game so well.

After watching both teams closely, I fancy Portugal to go through in 90 minutes, and to do so with something to spare. Make your gambling decisions based on the facts, and not what's happened in the past. Back Portugal to win in 90 minutes at [2.56]

Correct Score

It's worth backing Portugal to win this game convincingly and send Germany back to the drawing board ahead of the qualifiers for the 2010 World Cup. If Portugal get ahead, then they could pick Germany off on the counter attack, and I don't see Germany's powder puff attack finding a way past Pepe and Ricardo Carvalho. I'm taking Portugal to prove that they are three goals superior to Jogi Low's side, and win by a 3-0 scoreline at [40.0]

Half Time

I take the view that Germany won't be able to live with Portugal's front line, and that the prices about Portugal for this game are wrong. If Germany didn't have the history of overachievement that they do, then you wouldn't be able to back Portugal at [3.45] to be ahead at half time. I'd rather keep higher stakes for Portugal in the match odds market, but I certainly wouldn't put you off a half time punt at this price.

First Goalscorer

The temptation in this market is to veer towards the unlikely, as the rewards tend to be bigger if you get it right, but sometimes it pays to be obvious. On the basis that Germany look ragged in the centre of defence, and that Portugal's finishing should be in a different class to anything that we saw from Germany's group opponents, I think that Scolari's team will break through early, and that the most likely scorer in his centre forward Nuno Gomes. Cristiano Ronaldo's presence in the team means that the first goalscorer prices about the other forward players tend to be a bit bigger than they ought to be. You can back Nuno Gomes at [9.8] and that looks like a solid investment.

Corners

Portugal let us down in their third game against Switzerland, but it doesn't make sense to read too much into the statistics produced by a "B" team. Prior to that third match, they'd won 13 corners in their two games, and been involved in two match corner counts of 12. Germany and Poland produced only 7 corners in their game, but that was rather insipid and I think that this will be a match with more energy.

That could mean a corner count which is nearer Germany's make ups of 14 against both Croatia and Austria. This is definitely a game in which to lay nine or under corners at anything under [3.0], and even to have a small bet on 13 or over as well.

Tags: Corners, Correct Score, First Goalscorer, Half Time, Portugal v Germany: Match odds