Nations / Dave Farrar / 30 May 2008 / Leave a comment

Russia has been the focal point of European club football in the last few weeks. Zenit St Petersburg sealed a UEFA Cup victory in Manchester before the Champions League final came to a stunning finale in the depths of the Moscow night. Can an undoubtedly talented national team retain the glare of the spotlight?

HOW THEY QUALIFIED

An unquestionably fortunate qualifying campaign, one in which the Russians did not respond well to pressure, and in which two 0-0 draws against Croatia ultimately proved to be the important results, along with a home win against England, in which, after an insipid first half display, Russia were rather fortunate to prevail. They could only draw at home with Israel, and lost away in Tel Aviv when it really mattered. It might seem like a lazy cliché to say that the Russians crumble under pressure and travel poorly, but all of those characteristics were there in qualifying, and the national team seems unable to play with the freedom that Zenit St Petersburg showed in their UEFA Cup win. A close analysis of their qualifying results, and performances, makes Russia very hard to fancy for the European Championships.

COACH: Guus HIDDINK

One of the most respected coaches in world football, and one who seems happy in his current job, for all of the attentions of Chelsea. Hiddink is being paid handsomely to manage the Russians, and he's doing a good, if not a great, job. He comes with better credentials than any other coach at the tournament, having taken both Holland and South Korea to the semi finals of World Cups, and Australia to the brink of a quarter final. He is also the only coach at Euro 2008 to have won a European Cup, having been successful with PSV in 1988. (Five of whose players went on to get winners medals at Euro 88). His methods at international level might just work better with easy to mould teams, rather than those needing a more subtle approach, like Russia.

KEY PLAYERS

Andrei ARSHAVIN

As England fans waited for news from Russia's qualifier against Andorra, hoping for a miracle, one small detail of the closing minutes escaped everyone. Russia had won, but their star player, Andrei Arshavin, had been sent off. As a result of that crazy moment, Arshavin will miss the first two game of Euro 2008 and, even though he will be back for a potentially decisive match against Sweden, he will be terribly missed. Arshavin is a supremely technical player in the Russian tradition, and likes to operate in such a specific position, a classic number 10, that he's very hard for Hiddink to replace. A sign of his importance is that, despite missing what could be two thirds of Euro 2008, his place in the squad has never been in question.

Roman PAVLYUCHENKO

Pavel Pogrebnyak may have been the star of the UEFA Cup, until the final, but he still has to wait his turn in the national side behind the man from Spartak Moscow. Pavlyuchenko's best known contribution in his 15 caps came in the qualifying match against England, when he came on as a substitute and scored the two match winning goals. He has been Spartak's top goalscorer for the last four seasons, and will be the man that Russia turn to win them games in Euro 2008. How he responds, and how quickly Hiddink turns elsewhere if he fails, will be key to Russia's chances.

Konstantin ZYRIANOV

The only regular starter in Hiddink's team who is over thirty years of age, Zyrianov is also one of the unsung heroes of both the national team and of the UEFA Cup winners Zenit St Petersburg. He is a player of real intelligence and makes late, and very hard to trace, runs from the midfield, while rarely giving the ball away. To do well at Euro 2008, the Russians must shrug off the absence of Arshavin and play at a certain tempo. Zyrianov will be vital if they are to achieve either of those objectives. He has overcome unthinkable tragedy in his personal life to come back to football, and his award for Russian player of the year last season was richly deserved.

VERDICT

Zenit St Petersburg's UEFA Cup win might turn out to be a bit of red herring with regard to Russia's chances in Austria and Switzerland. Russia have some wonderfully talented individuals, and yet Guus Hiddink has yet to succeed in the way Dick Advocaat has domestically. Austria may be the luckiest team to be at Euro 2008, but Russia were the luckiest to qualify, fading badly against Israel and then having to rely on Croatia's professionalism at Wembley and a scrambled success against Andorra. If you add to that the absence of Andrei Arshavin from their first two games I find it impossible to back them to qualify. For all of their frailties, Spain should win the group, I think that Greece have the strength to join them in the last eight, and a final game against a weak Sweden might just come too late. In terms of prices, Russia's weakness is covered by bets elsewhere, but I would advise a small stake on Zyrianov to be the Russian top scorer at Euro 2008.

Tags: Euro 2008 Betting, Football Betting, Group D Betting, Russia