Russia v Sweden: Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Match 24 - Russia v Sweden / Dan Fitch / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Do these sides really want to win this game? I'm asking because the winners will play Holland in the quarter finals.

The Dutch made the well respected back fours of Italy and France look as though they were entirely comprised of clones of Titus Bramble

One dreads to think what they'd to a Russian defence that looked so creaky against Spain, that they could be used as floorboards in an atmospheric horror film.

As prizes go, a clash with the Dutch doesn't seem that enticing. I live by the rule that humiliation should be avoided at all costs, unless it involves sex, where it tends to be inevitable.

But such is the arrogance of professional sportsmen, that both parties will go into this encounter with a sense of blithe optimism. Certainly both have reason to believe that they can defeat the other, though to what purpose with the Dutch looming, is another matter.

A lot will rest on the fitness of Zlatan Ibrahimovic. Amongst Sweden's bunch of solid professionals, Ibrahimovic shines so brightly as a genuine world class player, that you half expect him to be plucked from the nest by a magpie.

Alongside him, old man Larsson has been rolling back the years as the linkman, but he has reached an age where goals cannot be expected of him. If Ibrahimovic is missing, then it's hard to see where Sweden's goals will come from, apart from the generosity of the Russian defence.

Meanwhile, the Russians are to welcome back their world class performer, Andrei Arshavin from a two match suspension. It will be a shame if this proves to be his one and only appearance in the tournament and had he played against the Greeks, he might have been relied upon to stick away another of the many chances they had.

As it stands, Russia's goal difference is abysmal and means that they must win this game. One wonders what fate will befall Guus Hiddink if they fail. Roman Abramovic, the man who pays Hiddink's wages, has shown that he has no patience towards managers that don't deliver. Still, the fact that he has spent the best part of the summer being turned down by managers before stumbling upon Scolari, might rid Abramovic of the desire to undergo another recruiting process.

Russia and Sweden have met five times, with three of these encounters breaking 2.5 goals. Unfortunately, the only clashes that have occurred within the last ten years have been the two occasions when the 2.5 goals barrier has not been reached.

Sweden did not qualify for Euro 96, but in both Euro 2000 and Euro 2004, were involved in final group games that broke 2.5 goals. Russia failed to qualify in 1996 and 2000, but in 2004 they were also involved in a final group game that produced over 2.5 goals.

Since Euro 96 there have been seven teams that have gone into the final group game with 3 points, like Sweden and Russia. Of these seven, only three have been involved in final games of over 2.5 goals.

But looking on the bright side, there have been twenty two teams since Euro 96 that have gone into the final game having been involved in one match of over 2.5 goals and one match of under 2.5. A massive seventeen of these twenty two went on to be involved in a final match that broke the 2.5 goals barrier. That's 77% for those of you with lazy brains.

History teaches us that there are always more goals in the last round of games, than either the first or second. In 2004 the first games averaged 2.1 goals, with 2.5 goals in the second games and 3.4 in the last games. In 2000 the first averaged 3, with 1.75 in the second and again 3.4 in the last. 1996 produced an average of 1.6 in the first game, 2.1 in the second and 3.1 in the last.

Under 2.5 goals is the favourite here at [1.72], with overs at [2.36]. I think that if Ibrahimovic plays then overs is worth a punt. Russia have got to win this game and managed to create a lot of chances against Greece, even if they didn't convert them.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Guus Hiddibk, Henrik Larsson