Match 24 - Russia v Sweden / Editor / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Half-Time

In all competitive games outside Russia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, Russia are W8-D6-L8 at HT, with a W0-D3-L4 HT record against teams ranked in the top 20. At major tournaments since 1992, Russia are W3-D8-L6 and have scored in the first half in only five of those 17 matches.

Sweden have been level at HT in both games at this tournament and under Lars Lagerback they have trailed at HT in just 8/37 (17 HT draws, 12 HT leads). They have lost only 4/17 at major tournaments under Lagerback, and their HT record in those games is W1-D9-L7.

On form a Russia HT lead is unlikely, with Sweden's figures pointing strongly to a HT draw [2.12].

HT/FT

Six of Russia's eight wins outside their homeland since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying have been W-W, while at major tournaments since 1992 they have won all three times they have led at HT. They have found it more difficult to convert HT draws into wins, doing so only once in eight attempts at major tournaments, with five D-L.

Sweden's last-minute defeat by Spain was only their third in 29 when not trailing at HT in competitive games outside Sweden under Lars Lagerback. They have never failed to win when leading at HT (12 W-W) and have a strong trend towards the FT result matching the HT position (eight D-D, four L-L).

Russia have difficulty winning when they do not lead at HT and Sweden's first-half resilience points to D-D at [5.5] or a Sweden D-W at [7.2].

Russia clean sheet

Russia have kept a clean sheet in 8/22 competitive games outside Russia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, with 1/7 against teams ranked in the top 20. They have kept a clean sheet in only 3/17 at major tournaments since 1992, with just 1/9 against teams with a higher ranking.

Sweden have failed to score in only 8/37 competitive games outside their homeland under Lars Lagerback, scoring in 13/17 at major tournaments.

The figures point to a strong chance of Sweden scoring and Russia not to keep a clean sheet [1.4] looks a touch on the big side.

Sweden clean sheet

Sweden have kept a clean sheet in 18/37 competitive games outside Sweden under Lars Lagerback, with just 6/17 at major tournaments.

Russia have scored in 16/22 competitive games outside Russia since the start of Euro 2004 qualifying, but have failed to score in 4/7 against teams ranked in the top 20.

Mixed signals here, making this a difficult call.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings,

href="https://www.statsonsport.com/en/1/fbeuro08rankings.mxs">click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 betting, Russian football