Russia v Sweden: Half time/full time, asian handicap, to score, bookings odds/bookings index

Match 24 - Russia v Sweden / Alsy / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

If you only sing when you're winning then Russia will be the team humming on their way to Innsbruck's Tivoli Neu stadium Wednesday night. They face Sweden in their final Group D fixture with a quarter-final match against Holland up for grabs.

Both teams have one win and three points but crucially Guus Hiddink's team have their tails up after defeating Greece 1-0 while Lars Lagerbäck's side are still reeling from a last minute 2-1 defeat at the hands of Spain.

One goal was enough for Russia to record their first victory but one late, late 90th minute strike from David Villa managed to further inflate his transfer price by a few million Euros and deflate the hopes of Swedes everywhere. The defeat will have hit them hard and Lagerbäck's main task will be to ensure that his team forget the past and focus on a future place in the knock-out stages.

Approaching this crucial match Sweden have a superior goal difference but star striker Ibrahimovic is struggling with a knee injury. It's impossible to think that Ibrahimovic will not start the match but three days is not much recovery time for such a key player.

Sweden look solid in defense but have struggled to create many chances up front that don't involve the Inter Milan striker. The irony is that Ibrahimovic hadn't scored for almost two years before this tournament but (with two goals and a host of near misses) he appears to be their only serious goal threat. Larsson and Ljungberg still provide plenty of effort but the cutting edge that made them so dangerous in past years seems dulled by time. Luckily Sweden don't need to score to progress if it finishes 0-0.

Russia began their campaign with a stinker. On the wrong end of a 4-1 beating from Spain they showed a few glimpses of substance but looked out of their depth at the back. They improved against a resolute, if not exciting, Greece team desperate to hold onto their title and Russia will feel they can get the win they need against Sweden.

The best news for Hiddink is that captain Andrei Arshavin is available following suspension. Playing just behind the main striker, Arshavin is by far the most talented player in the Russia squad able to create and score goals with blistering pace at superb technique... what would Lagerbäck give for such an option while Ibrahimovic remains weak at the knees?

The odds show that there's little to choose between two well-matched sides. The Half Time/Full Time market proves that you'd struggle to get a sheet of paper between the teams. You can back Russia/Russia at [5.2] or Sweden/Sweden at [5.0] but with so much at stake a draw is a genuine possibility. Defeat for either team means a trip home but a draw means Russia go out so as the match progresses I suspect Hiddink's side to press the game and become the dominate force. Backing the Draw/Draw at [5.5] is a smart move but I'd prefer to roll the dice and back Draw/Russia at [7.0].

Looking at the Asian Handicap market the [1.99] offered for Russia -0 looks spot on to me. It will definitely be a tough game but Russia has the all-important momentum coming into the game and, unlike Sweden, enough attacking options to win by a single goal. I expect Hiddink's team to smother Ibrahimovic and wait for their chance to seal victory.

You can back Ibrahimovic to score at [3.15] but I think the likely candidate in the To Score market has got to be Arshavin at [3.35]. Unlike Ibrahimovic, the Russian Captain is short on chat and height but long on talent. More importantly, he's also 100% fit and after two games watching from the stands appreciates he only has 90 minutes to impress the world.

Looking at the Bookings market, neither side has accumulated many cards to date (Russia 2 yellows, Sweden 1 yellow) so I don't expect discipline to completely break down at this crucial stage. However, it should be noted that Frank De Bleeckere will be officiating. The 41-year-old Belgian dished out six cards during Croatia's 2-1 defeat of Germany so, adding De Bleeckere's willingness to gift cards, to the all-or-nothing nature of the game, I'd back 9pts and above at around [1.7]. The bookings index shows the spread at around 55-59.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 stats, Ibrahimovic