Match 23 - Greece v Spain / Matthew Walton / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Another group scenario where we finish with a whimper rather than a bang. Well, at least we do in this match here in Salzburg.

Spain are already through to the QFs. They have midfield stability and creativity. Attacked with pace and guile. Yes, there are a few defensive concerns but overall Luis Aragones' side have been worthy winners of this section.

On the other hand, Greece's pre-match preparations will have had more to with packing suitcases than practicing spot-kicks as they ready themselves for their imminent return home after this match. There will be no glittering trophy in their overhead luggage this time.

This is a scenario which we have already seen with Portugal v Switzerland in Group A. One side will finish top, one side will finish bottom, whatever the outcome.

At least in Group B, where we had the Croatia v Poland, and Group C, with Holland v Romania, we had one side with an eye on the result. That made for fascinating matches. Here rather less is at stake.

So will we see the Greeks finish with the success of 2004 or the failure of 2008? We shall have to wait and see.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Spain v Greece - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Spain - P71 W47 D15 L9 F174 A51, clean sheets 34/71 (47%)
Greece - P58 W31 D10 L17 F74 A55, clean sheets 27/58 (46%)

A scoring rate of 2.45 goals/game is a pretty frightening statistic for any side to face and given Greece score only 1.27 goals/game themselves we can easily see where the data is pointing us with regards to this match. Add to this a Spanish loss rate of 12% (Greece is 29%) and the case for Spain just gets stronger and stronger. Then again, we cast our minds back to Portugal against Switzerland on Sunday and think do the figures really matter? Portugal were very strong favourites for that match.

Spain v Greece - Match Facts

The clear advantage lies with Spain. Only 9 matches to base our opinions on but of those the Spaniards have won 6 times. Greece did win on Spanish soil in 2003 but that has been their only success in this series of games. Two draws, including one at Euro 2004, make up the sequence. Hardly a compelling case for Rehhagel's side.

Luis Aragones has lost just 4 of 50 matches during his reign. A figure of just 8% which surely gives the Greeks little cause for optimism. They score at a decent rate but the defence is also of note with just 0.62 goals/game conceded.

Greece won Euro 2004 without playing the most expansive of games and such a style is seen in their data. Rehhagel's side score at a very modest rate of 1.25 goals/game and alarmingly concede at nearly the same rate (1.03). Should we expect a last hurrah with free-flowing, attack-minded play? Hard to see although it would make a change.

Spain v Greece - Market Analysis

Outright result - pitched at around [1.80] the Spanish are pretty much bang on the money. Arguably a tad over-priced. Greece [5.3] are understandably given little chance by both backers and figures alike. The draw at [3.85] is a little under-priced given that both teams have drawn 22% of their games under current management.

Correct Score - a bit tricky to foresee exactly how this market will play out. Neither side draws many matches so despite the 0-0 or 1-1 making sense there is little data to back up this view. Strictly by the book it's Spain 1-0 at [8.2] and 2-0 at [9.0] which appeal most. The 2-0 appeared in three qualifiers and 1-0 in one (but also in two recent friendlies).

First Goalscorer - we've collected on both Villa and Torres in Spain's first two matches. Here it's likely neither will feature heavily so Daniel Guiza of Mallorca might just oblige at a reasonable mark [9.0]. Failing that it's No First Scorer at around the same mark.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - the instinct is to go low and the statistics can certainly support that view when put in a certain way. Greece neither score nor concede many and Spain hardly need to force the pace. An ''under' of [3.55] appears to have more value than the 'over' at [1.35].

Conclusion

Obviously a difficult match to assess. At least neither side has anything to play for so the apathy card could feature equally from both teams.

Had it not been for David villa's last minute winner against Sweden then this game would have had something riding on it. As it is, we're left to play out 90 minutes of largely ineffectual football.

Never the less, such matches can still turn us a profit if we approach the exchange in the right way and armed with the data presented here there's every chance you could turn a pointless game into a profitable one - and wouldn't that be something.

Thankfully after this we're off to the QF's.

Tags: David Villa, Euro 2008 betting, Euro 2008 odds