Match 23 - Greece v Spain / Robert Hughes / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

That this match is a 'dead rubber' in many ways makes it a more unpredictable affair. Spain, having already qualified for the Quarter-Finals, rest some key players, but those who come in will be keen to impress, whereas Greece would have expected to go into this match with at least a chance of qualifying for the next stage. Will they be looking to salvage some pride by putting in one last determined, defensive performance, or will we see them play with more freedom now the pressure is off?

Spanish coach Luis Aragones will be wary of making full-scale changes to his team. Two years ago at the World Cup, he changed his whole starting XI for the final group game, and many felt that this caused a loss of momentum which contributed to their defeat against France in the Second Round. Nevertheless, he is likely to rest one or both of David Villa and Fernando Torres.

Villa looks the most likely candidate for a break, given that he has played every minute so far - although Aragones has already expressed concern over Torres' freshness following a long Premiership season. Therefore Real Mallorca's Daniel Guiza, top scorer in La Liga last season, looks likely to start, and is available at [3.25] in the To Score market. Also likely to feature are the Premiership duo of Cesc Fabregas, who looks a decent bet at [4.0], and Xabi Alonso, who may be used in a more offensive role than at Liverpool recently - he might be worth a look at [6.0].

Greek coach Otto Rehhagel obviously has no reason to rest any players, and may want to show loyalty to some of the veterans of 2004, for whom this may be the last hurrah. However, I would still expect him to give a chance to some fringe players, including Celtic striker Georgios Samaras, who is [4.0] to score in this match. This may be the last major tournament for 32-year old captain Angelos Basinas, and the hard-working midfielder might be worth considering at [8.0]. Another hero of 2004, Angelos Charisteas, missed a great chance to equalise against Russia, but may get another game here, and can be backed at [4.0] to find the net in this final game.

Referee Howard Webb showed five yellow cards in the Austria v Poland match, and booked an average of 3.46 players per game in the Premier League last season. However, with nothing at stake in this match, I would not expect a flurry of cards here. Spain have received just one yellow card so far, and although Greece have picked up five in their two matches, they were mainly incurred as they battled in vain to get back on level terms. Unless their frustration at being knocked out boils over in this match, I'd say that five points and under at [1.5] in the Bookings Odds market is about right, although 6-8 points can also be backed, at [2.0].

Although they will have one eye on their next game, I would still expect Spain to put in a lively performance, as they seek to maintain momentum going into the next round and fringe players look to stake their claim for a starting spot. Although there is nothing at stake but pride for the deposed champions, they may find it difficult to abandon their defensive instincts and play with more freedom, so I would not expect them to pose much of a threat to the Spanish goal. In the Asian Handicap market, you can back Spain -0.5 at [1.74].

Greece may be able to hold off the Spanish until half time, but I would expect the effort they have had to put in over their two matches so far to catch up with them, so I'd be looking at Draw / Spain at [5.5] in the Half Time / Full Time market. If they are behind at the interval, I would not expect to see them come back into the game, so Spain / Spain might also be worth considering at [2.82].

Tags: Angelos Basinas, Angelos Charisteas, Asian handicap, Booking odds, David Villa, Euro 2008, Fernando Torres, Georgios Samaras, Greece v Spain, To score