Match 23 - Greece v Spain / Editor / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Greek obduracy and the likelihood that Spain will rest the free scoring Torres/Villa dream duo points to a half time draw. But then again...

Half-Time

Greece have a 50% HT draw rate under Otto Rehhagel, applying to all competitive games outside Greece (W7-D13-L6) and to tournament games (W1-D4-L3). Outside Greece under Rehhagel they are W3-D3-L1 at HT against teams ranked in the top 10.

In competitive games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, Spain's HT record is W7-D8-L3. At major tournaments since 1998, their HT record is a similar W8-D10-L3.

Both sides point most strongly to a HT draw [2.3], with Spain the most likely team to lead, though there are doubts over their line-up.

HT/FT

Not only are Greece good at getting to HT on level terms, they have a strong record of taking something when they do, losing only 2/13 when level at the break in competitive games outside Greece under Rehhagel. Their most common HT/FT outcome has been D-W (7/26), followed by W-W (six) and L-L (five).

In competitive games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, the most common HT/FT result for Spain has been W-W (7/18), followed by D-D (4). W-W (6/21) is also their most common outcome at major tournaments since 1998.

The pointers are not particularly strong in this market.

Greece clean sheet

Outside Greece under Rehhagel, the Greeks have kept a clean sheet in 11/26 competitive games, including 4/7 against teams ranked in the top 10.

Spain have scored in 15/18 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones, with only one failure in their last 15. They have scored in 17/21 at major tournaments since 1998 and arrived on a good scoring run which they have continued, scoring six goals in two games so far, though their best strikers are likely to be given a rest here.

Spain clean sheet

Spain have kept a clean sheet in 8/18 games outside Spain under Luis Aragones (3/8 against teams ranked in the top 30) and their number of clean sheets is low (5/21) at major tournaments since 1998.

Greece have yet to score so far in this tournament, but overall their scoring record has been good in competitive matches outside Greece under Otto Rehhagel, with just six blanks in 26 games. They have scored in 6/7 against teams ranked in the top 10.

Spain's clean-sheet record is poor for a team of their class and Greece's scoring record is good, though they are the only team yet to score in this tournament. Greece's scoring drought in this tournament is the only off-putting factor for Spain not to keep a clean sheet [1.64].

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings,

href="https://www.statsonsport.com/en/1/fbeuro08rankings.mxs">click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Clean Sheet, David Villa, Fernando Torres, Greece v Spain, Half time, Stats on Sport