Match 23 - Greece v Spain / Dan Fitch / 17 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Dan Fitch isn't exactly relishing tonight's Group C clash. But there's no such thing as a "dead rubber" on Betfair and suspense surrounding who will play and what will motivate them has only enriched the markets.

Oh good, another pointless clash between two teams, due to the good form of one and the ineptitude of the other.

Is it really necessary to go through with these matches? What did we learn from Portugal v Switzerland, other than the fact that Helder Postiga has yet to fulfil the potential that Glenn Hoddle once saw in him?

I suppose there could be some drama, given that the beleaguered Howard Webb is to take charge of the match. UEFA are officially backing Webb for his decision in the Poland v Austria game, but are hardly demonstrating it by making him officiate a match in which it doesn't matter if he awards a dozen dodgy penalties.

No one is suprised to see the tournament holders go out. It was always unlikely that lightning would strike twice for the Greeks and they were so defensive that their striker Gekas looked so lonely and isolated, that he began to resemble a teenage fan of the Smiths.

Wining Euro 2004 was something of a miracle. At least unlike England, the Greeks don't have to kid themselves that they will ever win anything else. Not going through such self inflicted torture and disappointment, must be something of a blessing.

Like England, the Spanish have tasted glory only once and spent the next forty odd years looking to replicate it. They looked less convincing against Sweden than they did against Russia, but with class strikers such as Torres and Villa, they are always in with a chance.

Backers of Villa to be top scorer (myself included) will be hoping that he will not be rested for the final group game, especially with Greece representing such cannon fodder. But it does seem likely that wholesale changes will be made, making the match even more of an irrelevance.

It seems as if international coaches care not a fig for us punters. Don't they realise that without England's involvement, the possibility of winning some money is the only thing keeping us watching Euro 2008?

Winning some cash is certainly the only reason to watch this match. In regards to the 2.5 goals market, the statistics show that five out of the nine clashes between Greece and Spain have resulted in over 2.5 goals.

This includes a friendly match played in 2007 in which Spain won 3-2. Now obviously there's about as much chance of Greece's players scoring two goals against Spain in this game, as there is of them staging their own version of the Mousetrap at half time, but it at least points to an open game, in what is essentially another friendly.

There have been seven teams since Euro 96 that like Spain, have won both of their first two group games. Six of these teams went on to break 2.5 goals in their final group match. Like Greece, there have been six teams since Euro 96 that have lost there first two games. Four of these sides were involved in final matches that featured over 2.5 goals.

The last round of group games in the European Championships, tend to produce more overs than unders. Seven of the eight final groups games in 2004 broke 2.5 goals. There were five in 2000 and in 1996 there were six instances of overs.

If Spain do decide to rest Villa and Torres, then their potential replacements are an unknown quantity at this level. Sergio Garcia was uncapped when called up as a replacement for Bojan Krkic and has an unimpressive goalscoring record for Real Zaragoza, for whom he has often played as a winger. The same can not be said for Dani Guiza, who finished the season as the La Liga top scorer, with 27 goals from 37 appearances, though he has yet to score for Spain.

Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at [1.94], with overs at [2.02]. I'd wait until I saw the Spanish starting eleven before making a decision on this. If the likes of Torres and Villa do not feature, then unders is the way to go.

Tags: Greece v Spain: 2.5 goals market