Match 22 - Netherlands v Romania / Matthew Walton / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

The precedent could very well have been set for this match in the Portugal-Switzerland game. With the Portuguese through, Scolari fielded a second XI and Switzerland duly obliged 2-0. Holland have the same option.

And this game is fundamentally grounded upon how the Dutch play. Know the answer to that question and you'll know how to attack the markets on Betfair.

Van Basten could start with a second string side (and who would blame him?) to ensure players don't pick up injuries or bookings. What's more, a Romania win would also put France and Italy out of the tournament - a cause for celebration for all the QF-ists and a handy bonus to a Dutch no-show.

That said, the Dutch coach might wish for continuity. A winning side is a good one to manage and the perfect way to enter the QF's. Keep the boys up to their work.

Also, let's not forget Romania. They may have been unadventurous against France but they were unlucky against Italy. They have claims to get a result in this match even if Holland are giving it their all.

Such philosophical questions provide the back-drop to this match. They frame the action which we can study through the data available. Either way, it's an absorbing debate which surrounds this match in Berne.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

Holland v Romania - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

Holland - P67 W43 D14 L10 F141 A43, clean sheets 38/67 (56%)
Romania - P62 W36 D14 L12 F113 A49, clean sheets 27/61 (44%)

Putting conspiracy theories to one side, the statistics do point to a strong Dutch team holding sway. They win 64% to Romania's 58%, they lose 14% to Romania's 19%. They score more goals and they concede less. Furthermore, their clean sheet record of 56% is amongst the best in the tournament. Mind you, we said exactly the same thing before Portugal played Switzerland and, of course, the statistically inferior side won!

Holland v Romania - Match Facts

On previous form it's Holland who come out on top again. With 6 wins from 10 matches and just 1 defeat they are the clear pick. However, Romania did win their last meeting just last year so would a victory for Victor Piturca's side be such an upset to the formbook?

Maybe not. Romania are a solid outfit. Under Piturca they have a good record and a clean sheet percentage which has gone up markedly with the new boss (57%). That is a cause for optimism, likewise just 24 goals conceded in his 38 matches.

Holland have been no less impressive with Van Basten at the helm. The former striker has seen his side score at a rate of nearly two goals/game and concede a fraction of that amount. Just 5 losses in 50 matches (10%) is testimony to his managerial ability.

Holland v Romania - Market Analysis

Outright result - Romania [2.2] are priced purely on the circumstances surrounding this match. Holland [3.3] and the draw [4.0] are overpriced as a result. A Romanian win has little statistical basis and the only logical call, based on the data, is to lay them at what is a falsely short price.

Correct Score - again, your view of this market has to be linked to the outright result. Romania 1-0 [8.6] would be a repeat of their last meeting in October and makes most appeal. Failing that the 1-1 draw [8.8] would help to preserve Holland's reputation.

First Goalscorer - can Mutu [6.0] redeem himself? He'll certainly be trying and does remain the most potent striker for Romania. For the Dutch we will have to see their line-up but Huntelaar [8.0] has a great strike-rate and looks their best weapon.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - another market which is manipulated by the moment. The logic points to the 'over' but that's assuming Holland actually want to get something from the game. As such, the [3.5] for the 'under' has more value should you wish to speculate.

Conclusion

The classic case of 'I told you so' will come to pass after this match. Those who fancy Holland to roll over and die will say it was plain for all to see.

However, those of us who champion the integrity of the sport (and the statistics) still maintain there are bets to be had in such circumstances. If you're unsure as to the winner then the first goalscorer and correct score markets offer the most attractive options in what could prove to be a memorable encounter.

Betfair should be buzzing with this match!

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, football stats