Match 22 - Netherlands v Romania / Dan Fitch / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Having whipped both Italy and France into shape, they have won the group and now have the luxury of being able to rest players.

Of course, this possibility has got the Italians lost in a world of murky conspiracy theories. Just because their own culture permeates with corruption, they think that everyone else is at it. Until the day comes when cinemas are showing films about the Dutch mafia (the Clogfather anyone?), the Italians should belt up.

Instead, the Italians are making veiled threats. They haven't quite got to the point of horses heads in the Dutch beds (except in Van Nistlerooy's room of course), but they're still making their point known.

The president of the Italian football federation has said that if the Netherlands do not beat Romania by three clear goals, as they did with France and his own nation, then "we're going to have to take a deeper look". Meanwhile Cesar Maldini has spoken of Marco Van Basten's desire to one day coach AC Milan and suggested that this would be impossible, should his Dutch team lie down and let Romania walk all over them.

What no one seems to have considered is that Romania might not play as abysmally against the Netherlands, as either France or Italy managed. Romania did after all finish above the Dutch in their qualifying group and so far this tournament, stifled the French and only failed to beat Italy due to a save from Buffon that was half brilliance, half luck.

Italy and France should concentrate on beating each other and blame no one but themselves if they fail to qualify. They were after all both expected to demolish Romania and gain at least a draw against the Netherlands.

The Dutch are keeping tight lipped on the matter, though the corners of their mouths are probably arching into a smirk at the chaos they have caused. They may well end up resting a few players, though they will not want to be outclassed and therefore may refrain from tinkering too much with a defence that has little strength in depth.

Their attack is a different matter though. Van Persie, Robben and Huntelaar are hardly going to weaken the team should they be brought in. But with a quarter final against either Sweden or Russia to come, it's questionable as to whether resting players is even necessary.

The two qualifying games between the Dutch and Romania, resulted in a 0-0 draw in the Netherlands and a 1-0 home victory for the Romanians. Perhaps not too much should be read into this though. Holland have undergone the sort of transformation only normally witnessed when Clark Kent enters a telephone box. They scored just fifteen goals in qualifying, from a group that included the likes of Luxembourg, Belarus and Albania. They already have seven goals in Euro 2008, from just two games.

The two sides know each other well, having also been drawn together in qualification for the last World Cup. Both of those matches finished 2-0 to Holland. Indeed, only two out of their total of ten encounters have resulted in over 2.5 goals.

Holland do not normally go out with a whimper though. In the last three European Championships, all of their final group games produced over 2.5 goals. Romania did not qualify for 2004, but both of their final group games in 1996 and 2000, also broke the 2.5 goals barrier.

Much will depend on Romania's attitude. They were incredibly defensive against France when they wanted to just get a point of the board, but were far more expansive against Italy, in what proved to be a surprisingly end to end game. Playing for a draw against Holland would be a risky strategy and at some point they'll have to go for a win.

Under 2.5 goals is the favourite at [1.95], with overs at [2.02]. I think that the overs will be broken here, in what should be an open game.

Tags: Adrian Mutu, Arjen Robben, Euro 2008, Klass Jan Huntelaar, Marco Van Basten, Netherlands, Robin Van Persie, Romania, Wesley Sneijder