Match 22 - Netherlands v Romania / Ben Lyttleton / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Portugal made eight changes when they took on Switzerland from the enviable position of having already qualified as Group A winners, and the signs suggest that Netherlands coach Marco van Basten will do something similar. You can¹t blame him if he does: after his side beat the world champions 3-0 and World Cup runners-up 4-1, he deserves to do what he likes. It¹s just a shame he can¹t pick himself for this one

Portugal made eight changes when they took on Switzerland from the enviable position of having already qualified as Group A winners, and all the signs point to the fact that Holland coach Marco van Basten might do something similar. And you can't blame him if he does: after his side beat the world champions 3-0 and World Cup runners-up 4-1, he deserves to do what he likes it's just a shame he can't pick himself for this one.

Switzerland were able to take advantage of Portugal's weakened side ­ mainly thanks to HelderPostiga showing the same kind of profligacy he did in his Tottenham days ­ and that result may well affect the market for other games involving group winners.

But if Holland do switch personnel around, will it greatly affect the outcome of this game? They started the France win with Rafael van der Vaart and Dirk Kuyt on the pitch, but ended it with Arjen Robben and Robin van Persie ­ hardly a major weakening of the team. As for the possibility that Ruud van Nistelrooy will be rested, well, his replacement is Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, scorer of 36 goals in 39 Ajax games last season, and with an international scoring record of more than a goal every other game.

No, it won't be the line-up that might trouble Holland in this game ­ much more likely to be the memory that, in qualifying, Romania took four points off the Dutch and did not concede a goal. But this is a different context and the fact that Romania go into the game with their fate in their own hands - after two draws with France and Italy ­ could play into the hands of the Dutch counter-attackers.

That's why the price of Huntelaar in the anytime goalscorer market is a surprisingly low [2.6], but Wesley Sneijder, scorer of fantastic goals in the two previous games (for some people, the best goals in the tournament), appears a high price at [4.8]. He may not start the game but if Van Basten keeps faith with the in-form midfielder ­ who recently admitted his mental toughness is because "I started playing street football in Utrecht aged three and I was up against kids of seven and eight" ­ he must be worth a look.

The over-goals market often pays out in the final group games as teams open up and go for it, and I expect Romania to trouble this vulnerable Dutch defence. Adrian Mutu is around the [2.5] mark to score but much more tempting is the [4.5] for Nicolae Dica, who looked sharp against Italy, or the [12.0] for captain Cristian Chivu, a free-kick expert whose skills were honed at Ajax.

Ultimately, Romania may still get out of the group but I feel they will fall short of winning the game: the draw/draw in the half-time/full-time market is [6.2] but the draw/Holland, assuming that Romania will leave gaps at the back as the game goes on, looks more interesting at [7.8]. In the Asian Handicap market, backing Romania at +0.5 goal has the 90-minute draw on your side, and that will be enough to get Romania through if France and Italy draw. That is
priced at [1.41].

From starting the competition as rank outsiders, Romania are now best-priced to qualify from the group at [1.86] but the context has changed since qualifying: Holland are flying high and Romania are missing key centre-back Dorin Goian (suspended) and defensive midfielder Mirel Radoi (injured). If Romania do end up with a draw in this one, you can back them in the Asian
Handicap market at +0.5 goal at [1.3]. If France and Italy draw their game, that will be enough to get Victor Piturca's side into the last eight.

Massimo Busacca is in charge for this one, and already the final round of group games, with so much at stake, has produced more cards than earlier in the tournament: even the Portugal-Switzerland game, with both teams' fate already sealed, saw eight yellows. That's why I think the 9pts-and-above price of [2.5] is attractive ­ especially if Romania do fall short and allow
their frustration to get the better of them.

Tags: Adrian Mutu, Arjen Robben, Cristian Chivu, Euro 2008 Betting, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, Marco Van Basten, Netherlands, Nicolae Dica, Rafael Van der Vaart, Robin Van Persie, Romania, Ruud Van Nistelrooy, Wesley Sneijder