Match 22 - Netherlands v Romania / Dave Farrar / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

MATCH ODDS

An Italian journalist whom I greatly respect has already written in a national newspaper that Holland will "let Romania win" this final game. The logic goes that the nature of the draw for Euro 2008 sets up a situation in which the Dutch can dispose of two of their main rivals for the title by deliberately underperforming and allowing the Romanians to claim a place in the quarter finals.

Five years ago in Serie A, maybe. In Argentina 1978, maybe. But not the Dutch, not at these European Championships. The conspiracy theory ignores the fact that Holland are still nursing some key players back from injury and will want to give them game time, and also that they will want to go into the quarter finals with three wins out of three and with the team functioning.

Marco Van Basten and Roberto Donadoni are good friends from their days at Milan, and I just can't see Van Basten allowing a carve up. There's a persuasive argument that Romania troubled Holland in their two qualifying matches and that they could do so again here, and that is a much more sensible way to look at this game. Before the tournament, Romania would have been the value call, but the prices have switched around and now it's the Romanians who are the favourites.

Victor Piturca has lost Dorin Goian for this match due to a stupid yellow card against Italy and that's a huge blow. Goian has been immense in the two games so far and it was the big central defender who scored the winner against Holland in that qualifying match. Holland are not a team against which you want to be missing a key defender. They have played some quite glorious stuff so far and have been the best team at the tournament by some distance. I think that Holland are real value here. Ignore the conspiracy theorists and get stuck in at [3.35].

CORRECT SCORE

Both of the games between these teams in qualifying were low scoring, with just one goal in 180 minutes of play. The Dutch have bucked that trend quite wonderfully in their two matches so far. From turgid in the qualifiers to exhilarating at Euro 2008. Without the names that Van Basten seems likely to rest, the Dutch may not be quite as expansive, and Romania will fight for everything, but will need to take risks in a match that they must win. A very difficult call, but I think that the Dutch will win by one goal. 2-1 at [14.0]

FIRST GOALSCORER

Trying to pick the first goalscorer in a game in which team news will be key is always a nightmare. The two names that I'll tell you to watch out for should both start for Holland, and both give you value for different reasons. Klaas Jan Huntelaar is the obvious choice at around [8.0]. He had an unbelievable season at Ajax, scoring 33 goals in 34 matches, and whatever you say about the standard of the Eredivisie, they are some serious stats.

He'd get into many of the other first teams here, but Van Basten's system of a lone striker counts against him. The other player that you mustn't ignore is Jon Heitinga. He was a surprising omission from the centre of the Dutch defence, but should start here. His record since January of scoring nine goals in all competitions is striking for a centre back and he'll widen your options in this market at a bigger price.

HALF TIME

If the Dutch "A" selection was playing in this game, then you would expect them to set the tempo against a defensive team such as Romania. Some of the younger players, despite being talented enough to win this, may take a while to settle in to the competition and Romania are unlikely to take too many risks until the second half. This is definitely a game in which to watch the in play goals market, and I think that a 0-0 half time score, at [2.82], is definitely worth a bet.

CORNERS

The Dutch are not a team that really lend themselves to high corner make ups and Romania's style doesn't lead you to want to buy. They have both been involved in one game with a high make up, and one with a low. I veer towards the latter here, and will go under 9 corners.

Tags: Adrian Mutu, Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, Romania football