Netherlands v Romania: Half-time, Full-time, Clean sheet, SOS Rankings

Match 22 - Netherlands v Romania / Editor / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

Half-Time

The Netherlands have led at HT in both games so far, and overall in competitive games outside their homeland under Marco Van Basten, their HT record is W9-D7-L2 (W9-D1-L0 when scoring in the first half).

Romania have strengthened their solid record under Victor Piturca (W21-D7-L3) with two closely fought draws so far at this tournament. In Piturca's 31 competitive games, they have trailed at HT only three times (W16-D12-L3), keeping a first-half clean sheet in 23/31, and the draw rate is higher outside Romania (W5-D9-L2). Back to and including Euro 96, Romania have had one HT lead in 13 finals matches (W1-D6-L6).

These teams were in the same qualifying group, with both qualifiers 0-0 at HT (the FT results were 1-0 to Romania at home and 0-0 in the Netherlands). That shows the defensive strength of both teams and the HT draw [2.3] is reasonably priced, though the Netherlands to lead at HT [4.1] looks overpriced judged on their record alone.

HT/FT

In competitive games outside their homeland under Marco Van Basten, the Netherlands' most common outcome has been W-W (9/18) and they have turned all nine HT leads into FT wins, including in both games at this tournament. They have lost only two out of seven when level at HT, with three D-W and two D-D. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, they have had 9/23 W-W (W9-D1-L1 at FT after leading at HT).

The FT result has matched the HT result in 24/31 (77%) of Romania's 31 competitive games under Victor Piturca, with two D-D in their two games at this tournament. Overall their predominant outcome has been W-W (15/31) and in 16 competitive games outside their homeland under Piturca, the two most common outcomes have been W-W and D-W (five of each), followed by D-D (four).

The Netherlands are very strong when scoring in the first half and difficult to beat when level at HT, while Romania's FT results often match the HT position. That points most clearly to D-D [6.6], given the indicators for a HT draw, while the Netherlands W-W [6.6] looks big.

Netherlands clean sheet

Before demonstrating their attacking prowess at this tournament, the Netherlands' main strength under Marco Van Basten was a steely defence, which had kept a clean sheet in 20/28 competitive games going into this tournament. They now have 11 clean sheets in 18 games outside Holland under Van Basten. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, the Netherlands have kept a clean sheet in 10/23.

Romania have scored in 25/31 competitive games overall under Victor Piturca, but most of the shutouts have been against teams ranked in the top 10, failing to score in 4/7, including in 3/4 outside Romania. In major tournaments since 1994, they have scored in 12/18.
The odds are clearly influenced by Romania's perceived need to go for a goal, which has made a Netherlands clean sheet [4.1] overpriced.

Romania clean sheet

Overall, Romania have kept a clean sheet in 8/16 competitive games outside their homeland under Victor Piturca, but in major tournaments since 1994 they have recorded just three clean sheets in 18 games. They have had only four clean sheets in 17 games against top 10 opposition since the 1994 World Cup, though all four were in their last five games in that category.

The Netherlands have a good scoring record under Marco Van Basten, scoring in 15/18 competitive games outside Holland and in 22/25 competitive games against teams ranked outside the top 10 (against teams ranked in the top 20, they have scored in 5/7, with the two blanks coming against Portugal and Argentina at the 2006 World Cup).
Based on the Netherlands' good scoring record and Romania's low number of clean sheets at big tournaments, Romania not to keep a clean sheet [1.44] looks big, though their defensive improvement under Piturca is a positive for them.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings, click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.
All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Clean sheet, Full-time, Half-time, Netherlands, Romania, SOS Rankings, Stats on sport