Match 21 - France v Italy / Matthew Walton / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

How the mighty have fallen! Two years ago these sides were competing for the biggest prize in football. Here they're left to scrap between themselves for just a hope of qualification out of the group stages of Euro 2008.

And it's difficult to decide who has been more disappointing in these championships. France were turgid against Romania and terrible against Holland. Italy were feeble against Holland and fortunate against Romania. Neither side has covered themselves with glory in their first two matches.

Now the maths is simple. Only the winner of this match will realistically have a chance to progress to the QF's and even that will depend upon the result of the Romania v Holland match. And should the Dutch field a Portuguese-style second XI in that game, this match will be purely academic anyway.

Thankfully, as viewers and backers, this should make for a gripping encounter. Both sides must perform better, both must attack with more vigour and purpose ... mind you, both could do with defending a little better as well.

For guidance, as ever, we turn to the statistics.

As per usual we will be examining this match from two perspectives. Firstly, we will highlight the 10 Year Trends of each side. Looking at their record in competitive matches over the past decade and drawing conclusions from this data.

Secondly, we will examine the finer details of head-to-head form and previous tournament results, better known as the Match Facts, to formulate the best way of approaching these matches on Betfair. And, remember, the more information at your disposal, the better your decision making will be and, we trust, the better you profits will be.

Together this analysis will be used to predict the outcome of four key markets for each match. We will discuss the outright match result, the correct score market, first goalscorer and also the Over/Under 1.5 goals market.

Armed with this information you'll be ready to get stuck into the Betfair markets.

France v Italy - 10 Year Trends

These are all competitive matches since January 1998. No friendlies just World Cup qualifiers and finals plus Euro qualifiers and finals.

France - P69 W41 D20 L8 F127 A43, clean sheets 39/69 (56%)
Italy - P73 W44 D23 L6 F121 A47, clean sheets 38/73 (52%)

Both these sides are seasoned European and world campaigners with the statistics to match. France have lost just 11% of matches in the past decade (Italy a mere 8%). Both have a higher than 50% clean sheet record and both concede at an average of well under one goal/game (France 0.62, Italy 0.64). They score a similar amount, win and draw a similar amount. In short, there's not much statistically between these two nations.

France v Italy - Match Facts

It's the Italians who can draw most from the past meetings of these two countries. With 17 wins to France's 8 and 10 draws from their 35 previous matches. Interesting to note that 5 of the last 6 have been drawn (including the World Cup final) and Italy haven't beaten France in 90 minutes since 1978. As fate would have it, both were in the same qualifying group for this tournament where France won 3-1 at home and it was 0-0 in the return game in Milan.

Raymond Domenech is fast losing the respect he deserves for maintaining France's good national record. Just 6 losses in 53 matches and a clean sheet record of 62% but it's his attack which must bail him out on this occasion - they have been woeful thus far.

Roberto Donadoni has a similar conundrum with Italy. The side missed an opportunity against Romania and must now beat France. The negative for him is a poor defensive record under his reign. Just 6 clean sheets in 21 matches (28%) which is a concern, especially as Cannavaro is out injured.

France v Italy - Market Analysis

Outright result - Italy [2.46] deserve favouritism on account of their head-to-head record. France [2.96] demand respect for that 3-1 qualifying win en route to these finals. The draw [3.8] has plenty of appeal as well given the last few matches between these two nations. The value? Probably laying the shortest priced option (the Italy win) in what is very much a three-horse race.

Correct Score - with those 5 draws in the last 6 games the draw is an option. The 1-1 [8.0] has appeal (two of last four meetings) over the 0-0 but if either side were to nick it then 2-1 either way has the data to support it. Italy [12.0] and France [12.5] for a 2-1 win could be a saver.

First Goalscorer - strikers have disappointed on both sides thus far. In times of strife you must revert to the quality (and the formbook). Henry [8.6] and Toni [7.2] are obvious calls but both are the spearhead of their nations' attack as/when they do perform.

Over/Under 1.5 goals - tricky market. These two are more than capable of grinding out a 1-0 win. We've seen two 0-0's in the last 6 meetings as well. However, with the win of paramount importance we would have to suggest the 'over' [1.42] has common sense on its side and four of the last six matches have seen over 1.5 goals. This would just tip the balance in a tight market.

Conclusion

Time for one of these sides to stand up and be counted. And with plenty of data to work from, we can study this match in great detail.

Many backers will see this as a wide open clash. Both sides have played to a similar low standard thus far and both can perform far better. Another of those matches which would have made for a great QF or SF but we're seeing it now in this finale of the 'Group Of Death'.

You can literally make a case out for any result in any market. Statistics have that ability to be manipulated to say whatever we want!

However, to make a couple of firm observations. Italy scarcely deserve their 90 minutes' favouritism. We should see goals as we need to see a result. And here, on Betfair, you'll be able to make the most of this fascinating encounter - there is value to be had.

Tags: Euro 2008 bets, Euro 2008 odds, football statistics