Match 21 - France v Italy / Editor / 16 June 2008 / Leave a comment

EURO 2008: FRANCE v ITALY

Half-Time

France's 1-0 HT deficit against the Netherlands was the first time they had trailed at the break in 34 competitive games, and only the fifth time in 31 games under Raymond Domenech that they had failed to keep a first-half clean sheet. Under Domenech, their HT record is W12-D18-L1. Against top-10 teams since 1996, their HT record is W7-D8-L2, with draws in five of their last nine.

Italy's solid first-half record has also been upset by the Netherlands at this tournament, their 2-0 HT deficit to the Dutch in their opening game being only the third time in 27 games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup that they have trailed at HT (W11-D13-L3). The draw rate is very high against teams ranked in the top 10 (W2-D6-L1).

In competitive games outside Italy since 2000, Italy have trailed at HT only five times out of 41 (the last two HT deficits were against teams ranked in the top 10). They had led at HT in seven of their eight competitive games going into this tournament but they also failed to lead at HT in their second game, going in 0-0 against Romania, albeit unluckily.

The strongest indicators are for a HT draw [2.24].

HT/FT

Under Raymond Domenech, France's HT and FT results have often matched, with W-W (10) and D-D (nine) the predominant outcomes (accounting for 61% of their results). Of their 12 HT leads in 30 competitive games under Domenech, 10 have been converted into FT wins, while the 18 HT draws have divided into nine D-D, seven D-W and just two D-L.

A first-half lead is important for Italy, who are W2-D3-L2 under Roberto Donadoni when not ahead at the break. In 27 games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup, they have turned 9/11 HT leads into FT wins, with no defeats. When they have been level at HT, 9/13 have been D-D, with just one defeat. The FT result has matched the HT result in 70% of those 27 tournament games.

Both teams are good at converting HT leads into FT wins, but both have a high proportion of D-D [6.0] when not leading at HT and that offers an alternative to backing the HT draw, though a FT draw may not be what either side wants.

France clean sheet

France have kept a clean sheet in 21/31 competitive games under Raymond Domenech, with three out of seven against teams ranked in the top 10. At major tournaments since the 1998 World Cup, they have kept a clean sheet in 4/11 against top-10 teams.

Italy have scored in 22/27 of their games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup (only two of the failures to score were in a group match, and the only one that wasn't a goalless draw was the opening 3-0 defeat by the Netherlands). They have scored in 15/17 group games. Overall, Italy have scored in 34/41 competitive games outside Italy since 2000.

A difficult market to call and, while France not to keep a clean sheet [1.36] is clearly favoured, there is no significant edge here.

Italy clean sheet

Italy have kept a clean sheet in just under half (13/27) of their games at major finals since the 1998 World Cup. However, their number of clean sheets is lower in group matches, with 6/17. They have kept a clean sheet in fewer than half (17/41) of their competitive games outside Italy since 2000.

France have an excellent scoring record against top-10 teams, scoring in 6/7 under Raymond Domenech and in 10/11 at major tournaments since 1998. Overall, they have scored in 23 of their 31 competitive games under Domenech.

On the figures France's scoring prospects look better than Italy's, though Italy not to keep a clean sheet [1.43] is only slightly bigger than the odds on France to concede. Again, there is no significant edge in this market.

About the SOS Rankings

SOS consider FIFA's rankings unreliable, as they are based upon criteria clearly weighted to favour countries playing in weaker regional areas. SOS have therefore developed their own system of international football rankings, to give a more accurate guide of teams' relative strengths - and provide a more valid basis for their analysis.

The SOS rankings are based on a sample universe of more than 25,000 international matches, are updated every month, and attach a much greater weighting to both the relative importance of matches (friendly, competitive, major tournament) - as well as the relative strength of opposition and overall match supremacy. Allowance is also made for the game venue, not just in terms of simple home, away or neutral - but also in relation to the country's home continent. Points gained decay over a period of four years, the natural cycle of international football.

For the full SOS Rankings,

">click here, where you can also view previews for all matches.

All analysis, unless where noted, is based on competitive internationals since the start of the 1998 World Cup Finals.

Tags: Euro 2008 betting, Euro 208 stats, Roberto Donadoni