Match 20 - Poland v Croatia / Dan Fitch / 15 June 2008 / Leave a comment

I was once offered a place on a University course on the proviso that I attained three B grades in my A-Levels.

Both parties knew where we stood. I knew that I wasn't going to get those grades and the University were laughing up their sleeve at the mere idea of it.

In fact, the only person who did think I could manage it was my mum, but then mothers in general tend to have a slightly unrealistic view as to what can be achieved by their offspring.

It was a strange situation. In theory I was being offered something, but the reality was slightly different. I'm afraid there's no twist to this tale. My A-Level results arrived, featuring more Es than a night at the Hacienda.

Poland are currently in the same predicament as my teenage self. In theory they've got a chance of qualification, but everyone knows that they really haven't. I guess when I was in the same situation, I was lucky to have the get-out-of-jail-card that is the university clearing process. Poland don't have that luxury, but at least this means that they won't have to attend the University of Staffordshire in Stoke on Trent for three years.

So Poland need a win and hope that Austria can beat Germany, or... well it doesn't matter. It's never going to happen so the Poles should just get down to what football teams normally do when confronted by failure. Blame the referee.

Crazy old Leo Beenhakker has been doing just that, laying into Howard Webb for his questionable last minute penalty decision and generally grumbling, as is the wont of elderly men. Something tells me that if a Polish paper runs another picture of Beenhakker clutching a decapitated head, this time it won't have anything to do with Photoshop.

Speaking of crazy managers, they don't come any more energetic than Slavan Bilic, who looked like a defendant celebrating getting off with from a murder charge, as he danced around on the touchline against Germany, with his tie askew.

Croatia played brilliantly in beating the Germans and will want another win here to ensure that they win the group and avoid Portugal. Especially impressive was the Spurs-bound Luca Modric and it's reassuring to know that Tottenham will have a new player that will constantly be linked with a move away from White Hart Lane, now that Berbatov looks to be finally off.

Poland and Croatia have met on four occasions, with the first two games featuring over 2.5 goals and the latter two matches resulting in unders. Overall these matches have averaged 2.25 goals per game.

Since Euro 96 there have been seven instances of teams that have won both of their first two group games, like Croatia. Six of these sides were then involved in a third match which resulted in over 2.5 goals.

The omens also look good for overs in regards to Poland. Since Euro 96 there have been eighteen instances of teams that have failed to break 2.5 goals in both of their opening games. From these eighteen, a juicy fourteen have managed to break 2.5 goals barrier in their final group game.

The last round of group games in the European Championships, tend to be bursting at the seams with goals. Seven of the eight final groups games in 2004 broke 2.5 goals. There were five in 2000 and in 1996 there were six instances of overs.

Croatia's last group games in both 1996 and 2004, toppled 2.5 goals, though they won't be pleased to hear that both games ended in defeat. They also broke 2.5 in their final match of the 2006 World Cup, in the infamous 2-2 draw with Australia.

Under 2.5 goals is the narrow favourite at [1.91], with the overs at [2.08]. Considering that Poland have no choice but to go out for a win and that Croatia are a side with the ability to break with speed and precision, then I think there should be goals in this, making overs a healthy investment.

Tags: Croatian football, Euro 2008 bets, Slaven Bilic